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Healthcare Sector Checkup Summary

Core Content

This report provides a detailed analysis of the healthcare sector, focusing on Medtech, HC Services, and Specialty Pharma, using a proprietary Stockometer Screening Tool. The tool aggregates data across sub-sectors and regions to highlight potential share price anomalies, considering changes in fundamentals, valuation, leverage, FCF, and relative positioning. It also includes stock momentum and sentiment monitors, RSI charts, valuation metrics, consensus growth, and margin changes to help investors gauge shifts in market and company expectations.

The report categorizes stocks into four investment styles: (i) Structural Growth, (ii) Cyclical / Consumer, (iii) Income-oriented, and (iv) Value / Turnaround. It emphasizes the relative performance of these categories, noting that Value / Turnaround stocks are currently more favorable than Cyclical / Consumer stocks.

Key Information and Main Points

Medtech Sector

• Overview: The Medtech sector screens higher, but is impacted by mixed signals across metrics.
• Top Performers:
  • Smith & Nephew (SN LN): Rated BUY, with a price target of 1,250. It has seen a 12% YTD return and a 17.9x P/E.
  • Convatec (CTEC LN): Rated BUY, with a price target of 325. It has a 32% YTD return and a 26.1x P/E.
  • Coloplast (COLOB DC): Rated BUY, with a price target of 850. It has seen a 32% YTD return and a 28.5x P/E.
• Underperformers:
  • STMN (STMN SW): Rated HOLD, with a price target of 115. It has seen a (13%) YTD return and a 22.7x P/E.
  • Elekta (EKTAB SS): Rated HOLD, with a price target of 53. It has seen a (21%) YTD return and a 79.3x P/E.
• Average:
  • 1M Return: 3%
  • YTD Return: 12%
  • EV/EBITDA: 14.7x
  • P/E: 29.7x
  • 3-Yr CAGR 24-27E: 5.4%

HC Services Sector

• Overview: HC Services screens less favorably due to lower volumes, indicating less conviction.
• Top Performers:
  • Spire Healthcare Group PLC (SPI LN): Rated BUY, with a price target of 260. It has seen a (6%) YTD return and a 24.0x P/E.
  • Fresenius SE (FRE GR): Rated BUY, with a price target of 50. It has seen a 30% YTD return and a 14.2x P/E.
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME GR): Rated UNDERPERFORM, with a price target of 40. It has seen a 12% YTD return and a 16.3x P/E.
• Underperformers:
  • Medicover AB (MCOVB SS): Rated HOLD, with a price target of 209. It has seen a 25% YTD return and a 197.0x P/E.
  • Diagnostyka (DIA PW): Rated BUY, with a price target of 159. It has seen a n/a YTD return and a 27.5x P/E.
• Average:
  • 1M Return: 1%
  • YTD Return: 15%
  • EV/EBITDA: 12.3x
  • P/E: 18.2x
  • 3-Yr CAGR 24-27E: 5.7%

Specialty Pharma Sector

• Overview: Specialty Pharma screens less favorably, with lower volumes and concerns around stocking.
• Top Performers:
  • HIK (HIK LN): Rated BUY, with a price target of 2,600. It has seen a 5% YTD return and a 12.8x P/E.
  • SDZ (SDZ SW): Rated BUY, with a price target of 42.8. It has seen a 17% YTD return and a 19.4x P/E.
  • Recordati (REC IM): Rated HOLD, with a price target of 55. It has seen an 8% YTD return and a 17.4x P/E.
• Underperformers:
  • Rovi (ROVI SM): Rated BUY, with a price target of 68. It has seen a (10%) YTD return and a 21.0x P/E.
  • Kra d.d. (KRKG SV): Rated HOLD, with a price target of 94.5. It has seen a 0% YTD return and a 2.7x P/E.
• Average:
  • 1M Return: 1%
  • YTD Return: 12%
  • EV/EBITDA: 12.3x
  • P/E: 18.2x
  • 3-Yr CAGR 24-27E: 5.7%

CDMO Sector

• Overview: CDMO / Tools screens the worst due to high capital intensity, leverage, and continued concerns around stocking.
• Top Performers:
  • Lonza (LONN SW): Rated BUY, with a price target of 715. It has seen an 8% YTD return and a 38.5x P/E.
  • Gerresheimer (GXI GR): Rated BUY, with a price target of 68. It has seen a 32% YTD return and a 10.2x P/E.
  • Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM FP): Rated BUY, with a price target of 245. It has seen a 6% YTD return and a 27.6x P/E.
• Underperformers:
  • Sartorius (SRT3 GR): Rated HOLD, with a price target of 217. It has seen a (3%) YTD return and a 26.5x P/E.
  • Schott Pharma (1SXP GR): Rated HOLD, with a price target of 24.3. It has seen a 16% YTD return and a 17.5x P/E.
• Average:
  • 1M Return: 3%
  • YTD Return: 12%
  • EV/EBITDA: 20.1x
  • P/E: 60.3x
  • 3-Yr CAGR 24-27E: 10.5%

Signal Screening Methodology

The Stockometer uses five criteria to rank stocks:

1. Volume: Higher trading volumes suggest higher conviction in share performance.
2. Return: Stocks with higher total returns are ranked more favorably.
3. Valuation: Stocks with lower EV/EBITDA or P/E multiples are ranked higher.
4. Balance Sheet: Stocks with lower leverage and higher FCF or dividend yields are ranked higher.
5. Fundamentals: Stocks with greater declines in consensus forecasts are ranked higher.

Key Limitations

• Volume/Return: Sector repositioning or event-driven moves may affect the accuracy of volume and return analysis.
• Valuation: External factors such as litigation and management performance are not considered.
• Balance Sheet: Exposure to interest rates and fixed financing is not captured.
• Fundamentals: Earnings revisions may be influenced by M&A, one-offs, or profit warnings.
• Raw Data: Data is calendarised and may not reflect buyside expectations.

Summary and Rankings

The report provides sub-sector rankings and performance metrics, including:

• Medtech Average: Ranked 7, with 3% 1M return, 12% YTD return, and 14.7x EV/EBITDA.
• HC Services Average: Ranked 4, with 1% 1M return, 15% YTD return, and 12.3x EV/EBITDA.
• Specialty Pharma Average: Ranked 4, with 1% 1M return, 12% YTD return, and 12.3x EV/EBITDA.
• CDMO Average: Ranked 4, with 3% 1M return, 12% YTD return, and 20.1x EV/EBITDA.

Overall, the report aims to help investors identify potential opportunities and mispricings in the healthcare sector by evaluating a range of financial and market indicators.