20171013-三星证券-Record_results_on_the_way_8页_607kb
报告摘要
Company Update Summary: JVM (054950)
Core Content
This document provides an update on JVM (054950), focusing on its quarterly performance, financial forecasts, synergy initiatives with Hanmi Pharmaceutical Group, and market valuations. It is authored by Samsung Securities, with analysts Brian Lee and Wonyong Park.
Main Points and Key Information
1. Financial Performance and Forecasts
- Current Price: KRW53,500
- Target Price: KRW67,000 (25.2% upside)
- Market Cap: KRW338.7b / USD298.89m
- Shares (float): 6,330,908
- 52-Week High/Low: KRW59,500 / KRW35,150
- Avg Daily Trading Value (60-day): KRW0.7b / USD0.6m
2. Quarterly Results and Forecasts (3Q17E)
| Metric | Samsung Estimate (KRWb) | Consensus (KRWb) | Diff (%) | 3Q16 (KRWb) | Chg (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 30.4 | 31.6 | -4.0 | 28.7 | 36.1 |
| Operating Profit | 7.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 6.8 | 28.1 |
| Pre-Tax Profit | 7.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 112.2 |
| Net Profit | 6.1 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 71.6 |
3. Key Changes (2017E vs 2016)
| Metric | 2017E (KRW) | 2016 (KRW) | Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017E EPS | 3,206 | 2,718 | 18.0 |
| 2018E EPS | 4,391 | 3,833 | 14.6 |
4. Forward P/E and P/B Bands
- Forward P/E (x): 16.7 (2017E), 12.2 (2018E), 10.7 (2019E)
- Forward P/B (x): 2.5 (2017E), 2.1 (2018E), 1.7 (2019E)
- EV/EBITDA (x): 10.9 (2017E), 8.4 (2018E), 7.0 (2019E)
5. Synergy with Hanmi Pharmaceutical Group
- Realigning Business: JVM is aligning with Hanmi Pharm to create synergies.
- Smart Factory: Hanmi Pharm plans to build a smart factory for JVM this quarter.
- Localized ATDPs: Plans to roll out localized automated tablet dispensing & packaging systems in 1Q18.
- Direct Sales: JVM products will be sold directly in 4Q17.
6. Sales Strategy
- Korea: Largest directly managed sales force.
- Asia: 2-track sales strategy for Chinese hospitals.
- Geographic and Sector-Based: Separate marketing activities by geographic and politic factors, and by sector.
7. Financial Highlights (2016–2019E)
| Metric | 2016 (KRWb) | 2017E (KRWb) | 2018E (KRWb) | 2019E (KRWb) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 98 | 119 | 138 | 153 |
| Net Profit (adj) | 11 | 20 | 28 | 32 |
| EPS (adj) (KRW) | 1,753 | 3,206 | 4,391 | 4,986 |
| EPS Growth (% y-y) | 112.8 | 82.9 | 37.0 | 13.5 |
| Operating Margin (%) | 15.1 | 20.7 | 22.9 | 23.2 |
| ROE (%) | 10.2 | 16.7 | 19.4 | 18.4 |
| P/E (adj) (x) | 30.5 | 16.7 | 12.2 | 10.7 |
8. Global Peer Valuations (USDm)
| Company | 2016 | 2017E | 2018E |
|---|---|---|---|
| JVM (Korea) | 85 | 102 | 117 |
| McKesson (US) | 3,545 | 4,011 | 3,742 |
| Amerisource Bergen (US) | 1,526 | 2,016 | 2,116 |
| Cerner (US) | 911 | 1,208 | 1,330 |
| Omicell (US) | 693 | 89 | 1,096 |
| Baxter International (US) | 10,163 | 10,483 | 13,312 |
| Becton Dickinson (US) | 10,163 | 10,483 | 13,312 |
Conclusion
JVM is expected to deliver record results for 3Q 2017, with sales increasing by 36.1% y-y and operating profit rising by 305.5% y-y, net profit by 141.3% y-y, despite a 4% miss in sales against consensus. The company is on track for its best year ever, with consolidated sales projected to reach KRW130b and an operating margin of 17%. The synergy with Hanmi Pharmaceutical Group is expected to enhance productivity and cost efficiency, as well as expand market reach through localized automated systems and direct sales.
The forward P/E and P/B bands show a declining trend, suggesting increased valuation efficiency. JVM's EPS growth is projected to continue, with 37% y-y in 2018 and 13.5% y-y in 2019. The company's ROE is expected to improve significantly, from 10.2% in 2016 to 19.4% in 2018.
JVM is expected to maintain a dividend yield of 0.6% and is positioned for sustainable growth through strategic alignment and cost-cutting measures.
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