20160114-三星证券-4Q_preview_20页_1mb

Document Summary: Samsung Earnings Monitor - 4Q Preview

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of the financial expectations for the Samsung Universe and the Kospi 100 index for the year 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2015. It includes operating and net profit forecasts, valuation metrics, and sector-specific changes to these forecasts. The analysis is based on the latest available data as of January 13, 2016, and includes comparisons with previous forecasts and market trends.

Main Points

Earnings Forecasts

• Samsung Universe:

  • Operating profit is expected to grow by 8% year-over-year (y-y) to KRW114t in 2016.
  • Net profit is expected to decline by 1.1% y-y to KRW85t in 2016.
  • These forecasts are adjusted based on the underperformance of Samsung Electronics (SEC) in the preliminary 4Q results and the lowered 2016 guidance.

• Kospi 100:

  • Operating profit and net profit are forecasted to be KRW120t and KRW91t, respectively, as of January 13, 2016.
  • These estimates are down by 1.5% and 1.4% from the end-December figures.

• 4Q15 Forecasts:

  • Operating profit for Kospi 100 is expected to rise by 19% y-y to KRW26t.
  • Net profit is expected to grow by 59% y-y to KRW21t.
  • The underperformance of SEC in its preliminary 4Q results has dampened expectations, with one-off losses generally exceeding forecasts.

Valuation Metrics

• Samsung Universe:

  • Forward P/E ratio: 10.9x
  • Forward P/B ratio: 0.91x
  • These valuations are compared with historical data from 2012, showing that the forward P/E ratio is above the average and minimum levels, but below the maximum.

• Kospi 100:

  • Forward P/E ratio: 10.3x
  • Forward P/B ratio: 0.91x
  • These valuations are also compared with historical data from 2005, indicating that the forward P/E is above the average and minimum levels.

Sector Forecasts

• Operating Profit:

  • Energy: Expected to grow by 11.8% to KRW4.8t in 2016.
  • Materials: Expected to decline by 5.5% to KRW10.3t.
  • Industrials: Expected to decline by 5.0% to KRW14.5t.
  • Consumer Discretionary: Expected to decline by 0.7% to KRW19.3t.
  • Consumer Staples: Expected to remain stable at KRW6.4t.
  • Healthcare: Expected to grow by 10.5% to KRW0.1t.
  • Financials: Expected to decline by 2.3% to KRW15.6t.
  • IT: Expected to decline by 7.7% to KRW37.4t.
  • Telecom Services: Expected to decline by 3.9% to KRW4.3t.
  • Utilities: Expected to grow by 11.9% to KRW10.7t.

• Net Profit:

  • Energy: Expected to grow by 8.0% to KRW3.0t.
  • Materials: Expected to decline by 9.8% to KRW6.7t.
  • Industrials: Expected to decline by 9.2% to KRW8.1t.
  • Consumer Discretionary: Expected to decline by 2.5% to KRW18.8t.
  • Consumer Staples: Expected to remain stable at KRW4.3t.
  • Healthcare: Expected to grow by 10.7% to KRW0.1t.
  • Financials: Expected to decline by 0.8% to KRW13.6t.
  • IT: Expected to decline by 8.3% to KRW30.4t.
  • Telecom Services: Expected to decline by 9.7% to KRW3.3t.
  • Utilities: Expected to grow by 15.6% to KRW6.1t.

Key Information

• The Samsung Universe forecasts are slightly more optimistic than the Kospi 100 for the full year, but both show a downward trend from previous estimates.
• The SEC's underperformance in the preliminary 4Q results has affected the overall market expectations.
• The Kospi 100 is expected to have a 19% y-y growth in operating profit and a 59% y-y growth in net profit for 4Q15.
• The forward P/E and P/B ratios for the Samsung Universe and Kospi 100 are compared with historical data and other market indices, indicating their relative valuations.
• The top-50 stocks by market cap show varying growth rates in sales, operating profit, and net profit across different sectors.
• Insurance, consumer staples, and other capital goods are expected to show higher growth compared to healthcare, securities, and auto sectors.
• The forward P/E and P/B ratios are key valuation indicators used to assess the current and potential levels of the market.

Summary Table

Valuation Comparison

Conclusion

The document highlights the downward revision in earnings expectations for 2016 due to the underperformance of Samsung Electronics in its preliminary 4Q results. It provides a comprehensive overview of the financial outlook for the Samsung Universe and the Kospi 100, emphasizing the importance of sector-specific analysis in forecasting and valuation. The key metrics such as forward P/E and P/B ratios are used to compare the current market conditions with historical trends and other indices.