2010年-世界发展银行全球_Serbia_-_Right-Sizing_the_Government_Wage_Bill_42页_293kb

Summary: Serbia - Right-Sizing the Government Wage Bill

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank in October 2010, examines the issue of Serbia's public sector wage bill and its implications for fiscal sustainability and public administration quality. The analysis is based on findings from missions conducted between June 2009 and September 2010, and it includes insights from the IMF and other stakeholders. The report aims to influence legislation and provide recommendations for long-term reforms.

Main Views

1. Public Sector Wage Bill Overview

• Serbia's public sector wage bill constitutes a significant portion of total government expenditure.
• As a percentage of GDP, it is higher than most neighboring EU member countries, indicating potential inefficiencies or misalignment with economic conditions.
• The wage bill is primarily driven by wage levels rather than staffing numbers, suggesting that the issue lies more in compensation than in employment size.

2. Economic and Fiscal Context

• Serbia's economy experienced a boom from 2003–2008, but it entered a recession in 2009 due to the global financial crisis.
• Real GDP growth in 2009 was -3.0%, and it is projected to grow modestly in 2010, with pre-crisis levels expected only by 2013.
• The fiscal deficit has been increasing, particularly due to declining revenues, despite expenditure measures like wage and pension freezes.

3. Trends in the Public Sector Wage Bill

• The total public sector wage bill peaked in 2008 and has since declined, though it is still expected to fall further in 2010.
• Staffing numbers have remained relatively stable, with only a 2.5% increase from 2006 to 2010.
• Real wages in the public sector have decreased significantly since 2008, while private sector wages have continued to rise.
• In education and health, wages have fluctuated more dramatically, with notable increases followed by declines.

4. Wage Inequities and Structural Issues

• Public sector wages are often higher than private sector wages, especially in certain occupations.
• The current system of wage determination is complex and based on over 610 coefficients, leading to pay inequities and inefficiencies.
• The Government has been using wage freezes and position freezes to control the wage bill, but these measures are becoming politically unsustainable.

5. Need for Structural Reforms

• The report recommends a structural reform of the pay and grading system for public service employees, aiming to establish a simple 12-grade system with a single base salary.
• This reform would help eliminate pay inequities and reduce the Government's vulnerability to ad hoc wage demands.
• The impact of the reform on the wage bill would depend on the specific coefficients and base salary chosen, but it is estimated to be relatively small, around 0.35% of GDP.

Key Information

• Currency Conversion: 71.8 RSD = 1 US$
• Fiscal Year: January 1 to December 31
• Key Agencies and Institutions:
  • MOF (Ministry of Finance)
  • MLSP (Ministry of Labor and Social Policy)
  • HIF (Health Insurance Fund)
  • PEPS (Serbia Public Roads Enterprise)
  • RSA (Regional School Administration)
  • RSO (Republic Statistical Office)
• Fiscal Responsibility Legislation: The Government is committed to capping wage bill spending at 8% of GDP over the medium term.
• Wage Bill as % of GDP:
  • 2009: 12.3%
  • 2010: 12.3% (projected)
• Public Employment as % of Total Employment:
  • Serbia: 17%
  • Neighboring EU countries: 18–23%
• Public Employment as % of Population:
  • Serbia: Below most neighboring EU countries
• Wage Premia:
  • Physicians: 53%
  • Legislators, senior officials, and managers: 35%
  • Health professionals (non-doctors): 33%
  • Primary school teachers: 15%
  • Elementary occupations: Below private sector

Recommendations

• Short-Term Measures: Focus on the choice of wage indexation formulas, which can have a significant impact on the wage bill.
• Long-Term Reforms: Implement a more systematic and transparent pay and grading system for public service employees.
• Establishment Control: Improve the rationalization of staffing positions, especially in sectors like education and health, to prevent overstaffing and ensure efficiency.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The wage bill must be controlled as part of the broader deficit reduction strategy, given the Government's reluctance to raise taxes and the challenges in reducing other expenditures like pensions.

Conclusion

While Serbia's public sector wage bill is not necessarily overstaffed, it is overpaid compared to the domestic labor market and neighboring EU countries. Structural reforms in wage determination and establishment control are essential to ensure fiscal sustainability and improve the efficiency of public administration. The proposed 12-grade pay system is a promising step toward addressing these issues, though its implementation must be carefully managed to reflect available budget resources and avoid exacerbating existing challenges.