国际战略研究中心-产业政策，贸易和清洁能源供应链（英文）-2021.2-34页_2mb

Summary: Industrial Policy, Trade, and Clean Energy Supply Chains

Core Content

This report explores the evolution of clean energy technologies—solar PV, wind, and lithium-ion batteries—and their growing importance in global markets. It also examines the role of industrial policy, trade dynamics, and the strategic implications of China's dominance in clean energy manufacturing. The analysis is part of a multi-phase study by BloombergNEF and the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program.

Main Points

1. Growth of Clean Energy Markets

• Renewable Energy and EVs: Over the past 15 years, solar, wind, and electric vehicles have moved from niche markets to central pillars of the energy and transportation sectors.
• Investment Trends: Global clean energy investment has surged from $60.5 billion in 2005 to over $501 billion in 2020, with cumulative investment reaching $4 trillion since 2005.
• Market Projections:
  • By 2050, U.S. solar and wind installed capacity is expected to reach 1,329 GW, accounting for 56% of the U.S. power generation capacity.
  • EVs are projected to account for 42% of U.S. vehicles by 2040, with BEVs and PHEVs dominating new car sales.
  • Battery costs have declined by 90% over the past decade, making EVs cost-competitive with conventional vehicles by 2023.

2. China's Dominance in Clean Energy Manufacturing

• Solar PV: China now accounts for two-thirds of global solar PV manufacturing capacity. The country has played a key role in driving down costs and increasing accessibility.
• Wind: China has become a major player in onshore wind, with 90% of global capacity concentrated in the country. However, offshore wind remains a challenge due to high transport costs and reliability concerns.
• Lithium-Ion Batteries: China holds a 52% share of cathode manufacturing, 78% of anode, 66% of separators, and 62% of electrolytes. It is the largest refiner of lithium and cobalt, with 61% of lithium and 72% of cobalt refining capacity globally.

3. U.S. Outlook and Policy Considerations

• Renewable Energy: Solar and wind are already cost-competitive in most parts of the U.S. without subsidies.
• EV Market: EV sales in the U.S. rose from 0.7% of total car sales in 2015 to 1.9% in 2019, and are expected to accelerate significantly once cost parity is reached.
• Policy Interest: U.S. policymakers are increasingly interested in industrial competitiveness and energy security, particularly due to reliance on China for key components.

4. Trade and Geopolitical Implications

• Supply Chain Concentration: Clean energy supply chains have become less diverse, with China as the dominant manufacturer.
• Trade Barriers: Some countries have implemented tariffs and trade policies to protect domestic industries, but these efforts have had limited success.
• Choke Points: Different technologies have different supply chain vulnerabilities—e.g., rare earths in wind, and nickel, cobalt, and lithium in batteries.

5. Industrial Policy Case Studies

• India's Solar Mission: India has implemented policies to boost domestic solar manufacturing, but the impact has been mixed.
• Germany's Renewable Energy Law (2004): This law helped establish a strong renewable energy base in Germany, but it also led to overcapacity and market distortions.
• China's Industrial Policy: China's success in building a robust manufacturing base was achieved through subsidies, state-backed financing, and export strategies, but at a high cost in terms of trade tensions and geopolitical risk.

Key Information

• Global Installed Capacity:
  • Solar and wind capacity has grown from 5.5 GW in 2005 to 651 GW in 2020.
  • China is the largest producer of solar PV and wind equipment, with 78% of global cell manufacturing capacity.
• Technological Development:
  • The pre-cost-competitive phase was marked by government subsidies and support mechanisms.
  • As technologies became cost-competitive, market forces took over, reducing the need for government intervention.
• Economic and Strategic Importance:
  • Clean energy technologies are now critical to global decarbonization efforts.
  • The strategic value of supply chains has increased, leading to geopolitical tensions and policy debates.

Conclusions

• Clean energy technologies are cost-competitive and rapidly growing in both global and U.S. markets.
• China's dominance in manufacturing has significantly lowered costs, but it has also raised concerns about reliance and geopolitical risk.
• Industrial policy is crucial for ensuring domestic competitiveness and energy security, but it must be strategically designed to avoid market distortions and overcapacity.
• Future Challenges include trade conflicts, technological shifts, and resource dependencies, which will require policy innovation and international cooperation.

Author Information

• The report is authored by Sarah Ladislaw, Ethan Zindler, Nikos Tsafos, Logan Goldie-Scot, Lachlan Carey, Pol Lezcano, Jane Nakano, and Jenny Chase.
• It is produced by CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program and BloombergNEF.