世界银行-塞拉利昂国家气候与发展报告（英）-2025.6_128页_3mb

报告摘要

Climate Change Impact Summary for Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone faces significant climate vulnerabilities, including rising temperatures (up to 30°C by 2050), erratic rainfall, sea-level rise, and increased flooding, which threaten economic growth, increase poverty, and disproportionately impact the poor. The country emits minimal global GHGs (0.02%) but is highly vulnerable to climate damage due to its reliance on agriculture, limited fiscal space, and weak institutions.

Key Findings:

Climate Impacts: By 2050, climate change could reduce GDP by 9–10% without adaptation, pushing ~600,000 more into poverty and increasing inequality. Heat stress, reduced crop yields, and infrastructure damage are primary channels.
Economic Modeling: The CC-MFMod model estimates that adaptation interventions (e.g., green energy investments, air conditioning, water storage, resilient infrastructure) could reduce GDP losses to ~2%. Costs are front-loaded, with benefits growing over time.
Social Resilience: Poorer households, rural communities, women, and youth are most affected. Early warning systems, health infrastructure, education, and social protection are critical to mitigate impacts.

Priority Actions:

Green Energy: Expand hydro and solar power imports for energy security; achieve universal electricity access by 2030 through grid, mini-grids, and standalone systems.
Climate-Smart Agriculture: Strengthen policies for irrigation, soil conservation, heat-tolerant crops, and diversify livelihoods; invest in weather forecasting and insurance.
Infrastructure: Enhance urban resilience by protecting built-up areas, integrating climate risks into transport planning, and safeguarding water/waste systems.
Social Protections: Expand cash transfers to disaster-prone areas, train teachers on climate topics, and integrate health/climate data into early warning systems.
Climate Finance: Establish the Sierra Leone Climate Fund (SLCF); leverage carbon markets and green PFM; ensure debt sustainability and fiscal space.

Institutional Gaps:

Underfunded institutions (e.g., Climate Finance Unit); weak coordination across sectors; limited data for climate planning.
Challenges in enforcing policies and mobilizing private sector investment.