20240815-冠通期货-冠通每日交易策略_9页_522kb

Market Overview August 15, 2024

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Hot品种 Analysis

Coking Coal

Coking coal prices showed strength today, with a slight upward shift in closing prices. The roll-over of contract months supported a small rebound, driven by short-covering by short positions. Steel mills in Hebei and Shandong initiated the fourth round of spot price adjustments, reducing prices by ¥50/tonne for wet-quenched and ¥55/tonne for dry-quenched. Supply remains abundant due to significant price declines in Mongolia imports, stemming from strict overloading inspections at the Glyncorrig口岸, leading to rapid inventory accumulation by traders. Demand suffered from the material weakness of the steel sector, with profitability dropping to ~6% and widespread mill closures surpassing expectations. July steel output fell by 9%, worsening the bearish outlook, with coking coal expected to sustain downward pressure. Trading strategy: Hold short positions, wait for long opportunities.

Carbonate Lithium

Prices continued a sharp decline, reaching a new low. Battery-grade lithium hydroxide fell ¥2,000/tonne, and CIF6% lithium ore declined by $40/tonne. Non-integrated lithium salts face全线亏损, while integrated players, despite high capacity, reigned in output. The Chinese NEV market neared saturation (~51% penetration), with weak European and North American exports further constraining demand. The supply-side outlook depends on producer cutbacks amid澳矿 price drops. The technical chart shows a bearish trend with均线空头排列. Trading strategy: Maintain short positions, avoid long entry unless confirmed rebounds.

Gold

Prices rebounded slightly in the Asian session after yesterday's mixed CPI-driven movement. Core CPI (0.32%) met expectations, supporting Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. London gold touched $2,400/oz, with Shanghai gold monitoring ¥550/g. Strategy: Buy dips cautiously.

Silver

Silver prices strengthened amid similar macro factors but lagged gold due to weaker industrial demand. Higher gold-silver ratios suggest silver may be undervalued; however, caution is recommended as industrial demand remains muted. Strategy: Take profits on existing shorts, wait for long opportunities.

Copper

Copper prices oscillated due to mixed inflation data and labor market signals. Supply concerns from strikes offset firm demand from improving inventories (~3 million tonnes weekly reduction). Yet, weak end-demand via PMI contraction persists, limiting upside. Strategy: Hold short positions, observe potential resistance levels.

Crude Oil

OPEC+ confirmed production cuts until Q4, but weaker-than-anticipated U.S. inventories and mixed economic signals (China’s stimulus, Fed easing hopes) create volatility. Hurricane risks and geopolitical tensions add uncertainty. Strategy: Light long positions on pullbacks.

PVC & Related Chemicals

PVC supply surged due to higher开工率, while需求疲软 increases losses. Weakness in real estate and inventory pressures in pure碱 and glass limit recovery. Market remains bearish, focusing on technical support levels. Strategy: Trade roll-over opportunities cautiously.

Summary

The market faces dual pressures: supply-side injections and weakening demand. Most commodities exhibit bearish trends, with key watchpoints being U.S. economic data, OPEC+ policy shifts, and Chinese policy interventions. Trading Focus: Caution in long positions, strategic roll-over near expiring contracts.