国会研究服务部-科索沃：背景与美国政策（英文）-2021.4-20页_1mb

Kosovo: Background and U.S. Policy Summary

Overview

Kosovo is a landlocked country in the Western Balkans with a predominantly Albanian population (about 90%). It declared independence from Serbia in 2008, following a brief but lethal conflict in the 1990s. Since then, it has been recognized by over 100 countries, including the U.S. and most EU member states. Serbia, Russia, China, and a few other EU countries do not recognize Kosovo. The U.S. has been a strong supporter of Kosovo's state-building and the EU-led dialogue to normalize relations with Serbia.

Domestic Issues

Kosovo's political landscape has been marked by instability, with three government transitions and two snap elections since 2019. The Self-Determination Party (Vetëvendosje), a left-leaning party, won a landslide victory in the February 2021 elections, gaining 49.95% of the vote. This reflects public frustration with corruption and the status quo.

Key domestic challenges include:

• Managing relations with the ethnic Serb minority, especially in northern Kosovo.
• Improving economic and living conditions, exacerbated by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Strengthening the rule of law and reducing corruption.

Politics

Kosovo is a parliamentary democracy with a prime minister as head of government and an indirectly elected president as head of state. The National Assembly has 120 seats, with 10 reserved for Serbs and 10 for other minorities. Albin Kurti, leader of Vetëvendosje, became prime minister for the second time in March 2021, following the party's decisive win in the February elections. Vjosa Osmani, a Vetëvendosje-backed candidate, was elected president in April 2021, becoming the second woman to hold the position.

Vetëvendosje emerged from a 2000s protest movement against corruption and the postwar administration. The party has shifted from a protest movement to a governing party, and has aligned its policies with U.S. and EU priorities, particularly in combating corruption and promoting democratic reforms.

Democracy and the Rule of Law

Kosovo's democratic development has generally been positive, with free and fair elections and active media and civil society sectors. However, challenges persist, including corruption, weak rule of law, and political interference in the judiciary. Only a small fraction of high-level corruption cases result in convictions. The U.S. and EU have emphasized the need for stronger institutions and legal reforms.

Kosovo Serbs and Northern Kosovo

Approximately 120,000 Serbs live in Kosovo, primarily in the north, where they form a majority in four municipalities. These areas remain under Serbian influence, despite the withdrawal of Serbian forces in 1999. Kosovo Serbs rely on Serbia for employment and public services, which has led to tensions. The EU-led dialogue includes autonomy measures for Kosovo Serbs, such as the Association of Serb Municipalities (ASM), but implementation has been slow.

Economy

Kosovo's economy is small and open, with key sectors including services, agriculture, mining, and construction. Despite GDP growth during the 2010s, economic challenges persist, including a low labor force participation rate (40%) and high unemployment (26% in 2019). The country's large diaspora contributes significantly to its economy through remittances, tourism, and investment.

The pandemic caused a 7.5% GDP contraction in 2020. Kosovo's economic recovery is hindered by corruption, weak rule of law, and uncertainty over its dispute with Serbia. The U.S. and EU have supported Kosovo's economic development through foreign assistance and trade agreements.

Relations with Serbia

The unresolved Kosovo-Serbia dispute is a major threat to regional stability. The EU has been facilitating dialogue since 2011, with recent talks resuming in July 2020 after a 20-month suspension. The U.S. has supported this dialogue, although the Trump administration took a more direct role in negotiations. The Biden administration has reaffirmed support for the EU-led process.

Kosovo's Prime Minister Albin Kurti has expressed that dialogue with Serbia is a lower priority, but is likely to face pressure from the U.S. and EU to participate in negotiations. The dialogue has produced 33 agreements, but implementation remains inconsistent. Issues such as recognition and the status of northern Kosovo remain contentious.

U.S.-Kosovo Relations

The U.S. views Kosovo as a key ally and security guarantor. It provides the largest share of foreign assistance to the Balkans and is the largest troop contributor to the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR). The U.S. has supported the EU-led dialogue, emphasizing the importance of regional stability and reconciliation.

Congress has historically supported Kosovo, particularly after the 1998-1999 conflict. In recent years, foreign assistance funding has averaged around $50 million annually. The U.S. continues to engage with Kosovo through hearings, visits, and financial support.

Future Outlook

Kosovo's political landscape is shifting towards a more reform-oriented government, with Vetëvendosje now in power. However, the party faces high expectations for rapid change. The dialogue with Serbia is expected to continue, with the U.S. and EU likely to exert pressure for progress. The pandemic has further complicated economic and social conditions, highlighting the need for sustained support and investment. The path to EU membership and regional stability remains uncertain, with both countries needing to make compromises.