国会研究服务部-阿富汗：背景与美国政策（英文）-2021.6-16页_1mb

Summary of Afghanistan: Background and U.S. Policy

Introduction

This report provides an overview of U.S. policy in Afghanistan, focusing on the military withdrawal and its implications for security, democracy, and human rights. It highlights the U.S. military presence since 2001, the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement, and the ongoing challenges in achieving a political settlement. The U.S. has spent approximately $144 billion on reconstruction and security assistance in Afghanistan, and the withdrawal may impact future development and security aid.

Background: U.S.-Taliban Agreement

• On February 29, 2020, the U.S. and Taliban signed a bilateral agreement to:
  • Withdraw all U.S. and international forces by May 2021.
  • Have the Taliban prevent groups like Al Qaeda from using Afghan soil to threaten the U.S. and its allies.
• The agreement includes non-public annexes that reportedly contain commitments from the Taliban not to attack U.S. or international forces, as well as Afghan provincial capitals.
• Section 1217 of the FY2021 NDAA requires the U.S. to report on whether the Taliban is fulfilling its commitments under the agreement.

U.S. Military Drawdown

• The U.S. began withdrawing forces before the 2020 agreement and continued the process after.
• On April 14, 2021, President Biden announced a "final withdrawal" to be completed by September 11, 2021.
• The Taliban accused the U.S. of breaching the agreement, stating that the U.S. decision to stay beyond May 1 would allow them to take "every necessary countermeasure."
• The Biden Administration intends to continue "over-the-horizon" counterterrorism efforts after the military withdrawal, but it remains unclear how this will be implemented.

Impact of U.S. Military Drawdown: Afghan Forces and Security Dynamics

• The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are heavily reliant on U.S. financial and logistical support.
• President Ghani has stated that the ANDSF would collapse within six months without U.S. assistance.
• U.S. funding for the ANDSF in FY2021 was just over $3 billion, the lowest since FY2008.
• The Pentagon warned that full self-sufficiency by 2024 is unlikely, even if violence decreases.
• Casualty and attrition rates of the ANDSF have been classified since October 2017.
• Taliban attacks have increased since the U.S. began its withdrawal, with the group controlling or contesting up to 50-70% of Afghan territory outside urban centers.

Impact of U.S. Military Drawdown: Democracy and Human Rights

• Since 2001, Afghanistan has made progress in human rights and democracy, but this progress is disputed.
• The 2004 constitution establishes a democratic system with guaranteed freedoms, but elections are often marred by fraud, and governance institutions are weak.
• The executive branch is considered overly powerful, which may hinder political compromise.
• Endemic corruption undermines state institutions and discourages private investment.
• Human rights abuses are reported in both government-controlled and Taliban-controlled areas:
  • The Taliban is accused of conducting public executions, forced confessions, and restricting girls' education.
  • The Taliban strictly polices expression and attacks journalists.
• Afghan leaders are determined to preserve democratic institutions and the 2004 constitution, which establishes Islam as the state religion but does not necessarily tie policy to religious law.

Intra-Afghan Talks and Efforts to Achieve a Settlement

• Intra-Afghan talks began in September 2020 in Doha, Qatar, but have stalled.
• The U.S. produced a draft peace agreement, but it was rejected by President Ghani.
• The Taliban has not participated in a senior-level conference in Turkey planned for April 2021.
• The Taliban has not specified its vision for Afghanistan's future, beyond the goal of an "Islamic government."
• Some analysts suggest that the Taliban may seek a hybrid governance model combining their past rule with a more Western-style state.

Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP)

• ISKP, a regional affiliate of the Islamic State, has been a major target of U.S. operations.
• The group's strength was estimated at 2,000 to 4,000 fighters, but it "collapsed" in late 2019 due to combined U.S. and Afghan efforts, and the Taliban's actions.
• Despite this, ISKP remains a threat, with several high-profile attacks in 2020.
• Taliban participation in peace talks may lead to disaffected fighters joining ISKP.
• The Taliban has not agreed to a permanent ceasefire, though they have conducted limited truces during religious holidays.

Outlook and Issues for Congress

• The U.S. military withdrawal may lead to Taliban gains on the battlefield.
• The impact on Afghan security is a key concern for U.S. officials, with some suggesting remote training or training in third countries as potential alternatives.
• The U.S. may consider airstrikes against the Taliban if Afghan forces face a crisis.
• The future of U.S. aid and its role in leverage over the Taliban is unclear.
• The Taliban's refusal to recognize the Afghan government may complicate efforts to reach a political settlement.
• The U.S. has not paused its withdrawal despite concerns about the Taliban's compliance with the agreement.

Key Information

• U.S. military casualties: Over 22,000 since 2001, with around 2,400 fatalities.
• Total U.S. spending: Approximately $144 billion on reconstruction and security.
• Taliban control: As of October 2020, the Taliban controls or contests up to 50-70% of the country.
• Al Qaeda ties: The Taliban is still believed to have ties with Al Qaeda, despite commitments in the 2020 agreement.
• ANDSF funding: The U.S. provides around 75% of the $5–6 billion annual budget for the ANDSF.
• Democracy and rights: While there has been progress, human rights abuses persist, and democratic institutions remain fragile.
• Peace negotiations: Intra-Afghan talks have stalled, with the Taliban refusing to attend key meetings and rejecting a permanent ceasefire.

Conclusion

The U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan marks a significant shift in policy, with implications for security, governance, and human rights. While the U.S. has invested heavily in Afghanistan, the long-term success of its policies remains uncertain. The Taliban's continued presence and potential reemergence of extremist groups like ISKP pose ongoing challenges, and the path to a stable, democratic Afghanistan is still unclear. Congress will need to monitor the situation closely and consider the future of U.S. aid and involvement.