2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Angola_Request_for_An_Extended_Arrangement_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_98页_2mb

IMF Country Report No. 18/370: Angola Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF)

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF Executive Board's approval of a three-year Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Angola, amounting to SDR 2.673 billion (approximately US$3.7 billion or 361 percent of Angola's quota). The program is designed to support Angola's economic reform agenda, which includes fiscal consolidation, monetary and exchange rate policy reforms, financial sector strengthening, and structural reforms aimed at promoting private-sector-led growth and economic diversification.

The program is expected to help Angola restore external and fiscal sustainability and lay the groundwork for long-term economic growth and inclusive development. It is particularly important given the challenging macroeconomic environment and the need for decisive actions to address structural imbalances and fiscal risks.

Main Policy Commitments

Fiscal Policy

• Frontloading fiscal consolidation in 2018 to contain the public debt-to-GDP ratio and mitigate inflationary pressures from exchange rate flexibility.
• Gradual fiscal retrenchment over the medium term to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio close to the 65 percent target.
• Implementation of a value-added tax (VAT) and progressive elimination of subsidies.
• Rationalizing current expenditures, including controlling wage increases and streamlining spending on goods and services.
• Strengthening Public Financial Management (PFM) and eliminating domestic arrears.
• Contingency measures to cushion the impact of reforms on the poor, including special consumption taxes (IEC), recovery of tax arrears, real estate tax reforms, and social transfers.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• Liberalizing the exchange rate regime by eliminating distortions, lifting exchange restrictions, and winding down multiple currency practices.
• Tight monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations and build up international reserves.
• Depreciation of the kwanza is expected to help restore competitiveness and align with economic fundamentals.

Financial Sector Policies

• Enhancing financial sector resilience through asset quality reviews, recapitalization of weak banks, and restructuring the largest state-owned bank.
• Strengthening the AML/CFT legal framework and improving governance and credit-risk management in state-owned banks.
• Addressing nonperforming loans (NPLs) and foreign exchange mismatches in bank balance sheets.

Structural Reforms

• Improving governance, including transparency in debt management and restructuring the state oil company (Sonangol).
• Promoting a better business environment and diversifying the economy through reforms in agriculture, manufacturing, and the private sector.
• Implementing an anti-corruption strategy and strengthening economic governance.
• Enhancing data quality and statistical timeliness to support policy formulation and monitoring.

Key Objectives of the Program

• Entrench macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability.
• Reduce public debt to safer levels and create fiscal space for infrastructure and social investment.
• Improve financial sector stability and monetary policy effectiveness.
• Promote private-sector-led growth and economic diversification.
• Address structural bottlenecks and fiscal risks through comprehensive reforms.

Risks and Mitigation Measures

• Risks include:

  • Sharp decline in international oil prices.
  • Tightening global financial conditions.
  • Shocks to public debt from banking sector support.
  • Negative side effects from exchange rate liberalization.
  • Capacity constraints in implementing reforms.

• Mitigation strategies include:

  • Sound policy implementation and technical assistance.
  • Gradual fiscal consolidation and transparent debt management.
  • Strengthening the AML/CFT framework and improving governance.
  • Addressing NPLs and foreign exchange mismatches.
  • Enhancing financial sector supervision and capital buffers.

Program Implementation and Support

• The IMF Executive Board welcomed the ambitious reform agenda and strong political commitment.
• The program will be phased over three years, with SDR 715 million (US$990.7 million) available immediately.
• Semi-annual reviews will monitor progress and adjust the program as needed.
• The program includes technical assistance to support reforms, including AML/CFT legislation and bank restructuring.

Conclusion

The Extended Arrangement under the EFF is a key tool to support Angola's economic recovery and long-term growth. It reflects the IMF's confidence in the reform program and the political commitment of the Angolan authorities. The program aims to address macroeconomic imbalances, improve fiscal sustainability, enhance financial sector stability, and promote structural reforms that will help reduce poverty and inequality. The success of the program will depend on timely implementation, policy discipline, and effective governance.