Bruegel-新型冠状病毒肺炎大分歧：管理欧盟的可持续和公平复苏（英文）-2021.5-15页_1mb

Summary of "The Great COVID-19 Divergence: Managing a Sustainable and Equitable Recovery in the European Union"

Core Content

The document "The Great COVID-19 Divergence: Managing a Sustainable and Equitable Recovery in the European Union" by Grégory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas, Maria Demertzis and Guntram Wolff examines the economic impact of the pandemic on the EU and outlines policy recommendations to ensure a sustainable and equitable recovery.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Impact of the Pandemic

• The COVID-19 pandemic caused the largest global recession since WWII, with the EU underperforming compared to the US and China between 2019 and 2023.
• Southern European countries were hit hardest, while the ICT sector saw growth due to increased digitalization.
• Employment has largely recovered, but young people and those with low qualifications experienced significant job losses.
• Inequality may rise due to the uneven impact on different age groups, education levels, and genders.
• Consumer behavior is expected to change, with a shift towards more digital and remote activities.

Sectoral and Regional Divergence

• Tourism, travel, and services were severely affected, while ICT and digital sectors thrived.
• GDP forecasts show that some countries, like Italy, may not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023, while others, like Poland, may surpass them by 2021.
• The cleansing effect may occur, where less productive firms exit the market, increasing the average productivity of remaining firms.
• Teleworkability has potential to increase productivity and flexibility, but its long-term impact is uncertain.

Policy Challenges

• Policymakers must prevent long-term divergence and scarring effects from the pandemic.
• The EU's fiscal framework needs reform to support green and digital transitions and to improve public investment.
• Fiscal support should not be removed too quickly; instead, a short-term fiscal impulse is justified to help reach pre-pandemic output levels.
• Targeted support for low-income households and retraining programs are essential to address distributional effects and labour market gaps.

Insolvency and Labour Market Reforms

• Insolvency procedures in the EU are less efficient than in the US and UK, with lower recovery rates and longer processing times.
• Reforms to insolvency laws, such as the Restructuring and Second Chance Directive, are necessary to facilitate firm restructuring and promote investment.
• Teleworking is becoming more permanent, and social security and taxation systems must be adapted to this new reality to ensure fairness and equity.

Market Structures and Protectionism

• The EU should resist protectionist calls and maintain open markets.
• Global supply chains are still vital for cost efficiency and product quality, even though some firms may be repatriating production.
• Competition policy enforcement and market integration have historically supported European convergence and growth.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal policy should continue to support aggregate demand and targeted social programs.
• Insolvency laws need to be simplified and reformed to allow for restructuring and protect business value.
• Labour market policies must address inequality, especially for young and low-qualified workers, and adapt to telework.
• EU fiscal rules should be reviewed to encourage green investment and sustainable growth.
• Social security systems must be revised to accommodate teleworking and ensure fair treatment across the single market.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the need for a coordinated and forward-looking policy approach to manage the divergence and scarring caused by the pandemic. It highlights the importance of fiscal support, insolvency reforms, labour market policies, and market integration in ensuring a sustainable and equitable recovery for the EU.