解决全球新兴经济安全三难困境_68页_1mb

CSIS Report Summary: "Staying Ahead in the Global Technology Race—A Roadmap for Economic Security"

Introduction

The report emphasizes the urgent need for the United States and its allies to develop a cohesive strategy to maintain technological leadership amid intensifying global competition, particularly with China. It identifies three key pillars—protecting sensitive technologies, promoting domestic innovation, and partnering with allies—but warns of inherent implementation challenges. A "trilemma" arises, where selecting any two objectives may compromise the third, requiring careful balancing.

Key Themes:

1. Technological Competition and Economic Security

   • The U.S. faces a "technology race" in AI chips, quantum computing, clean energy, and biotechnology, with China as the primary competitor.
   • Policies like export controls, subsidies, and tariffs aim to decouple the U.S. economy from China but have proven ineffective due to smuggling, enforcement gaps, and unintended consequences like global supply chain fragmentation.

2. Export Control Enforcement

   • Greg Allen and Barath Harithas highlight the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) faces insufficient resources ($200M budget for ~600 staff) and inefficiencies, leading to loopholes exploited by smugglers. Recommendations include refining enforcement, leveraging multilateral partnerships, and regionalizing approval systems.

3. Promoting Domestic Innovation

   • Clustering Strategy: Sujai Shivakumar advocates for regional technology hubs (e.g., quantum, clean energy) funded by the CHIPS and Science Act to boost innovation ecosystems and skilled workforce development.
   • Energy Demand: Meeting the power needs of AI and advanced manufacturing is critical, requiring investments in transmission infrastructure and clean energy to maintain U.S. competitiveness.

4. Intellectual Property (IP) Protection

   • Kirti Gupta argues a robust IP enforcement regime is essential for incentivizing R&D and preventing misuses like patent trolling, which could undermine U.S. technological leadership.

5. National Interest Account (NIA)

   • Adam Frost calls for a National Interest Account (NIA) to streamline lending and reduce bureaucratic barriers, enabling faster responses to economic security threats.

6. Strategic Partnerships

   • India-US Relations: Richard Rossow highlights India's growing economy and potential as a partner in decoupling from Chinese tech reliance, especially in semiconductors and clean technologies.
   • Indo-Pacific Infrastructure: Erin Murphy advocates for increased U.S. leadership in global infrastructure, but emphasizes the need for transparency, debt sustainability, and multilateral collaboration to avoid China’s pitfalls.

7. Clean Technology Competition

   • Ilaria Mazzocco notes that the U.S. relies on global supply chains for clean tech competitiveness. Protectionist policies are counterproductive; instead, fostering innovation and partnerships is key.

8. Technology Alliance Building

   • James Lewis stresses the need for a technology alliance among democracies akin to the G7 or Wassenaar Arrangement, addressing sovereignty concerns and interoperability issues.

Conclusion

The report concludes that sustained bipartisan efforts are necessary to balance domestic innovation with global cooperation. Key recommendations include:

• Strengthening enforcement and multilateral alignment on technology controls.
• Investing strategically in clusters, workforce training, and critical energy infrastructure.
• Enhancing IP enforcement and promoting a national interest-based lending framework.
• Deepening alliances like with India and fostering infrastructure partnerships in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s influence.

By addressing these areas, the U.S. can sustain its technological edge and fortify its economic security.