2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jordan_Staff_Report_for_the_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_70页_1mb

2012 Article IV Consultation with Jordan: Summary

Core Content

The 2012 Article IV consultation with Jordan, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), focused on addressing fiscal and external imbalances, enhancing financial stability, and promoting inclusive growth. The consultation took place in Amman from January 22 to February 2, 2012, with the staff report finalized on March 23, 2011. The findings and recommendations were presented in a series of documents, including the Staff Report, Staff Statement, Public Information Notice (PIN), and a Statement by the Executive Director.

Main Points and Key Recommendations

Context of the Consultation

• Jordan faced multiple exogenous shocks in 2011–12, including high oil and food import prices, interruptions in natural gas supply from Egypt, a slowdown in tourism and remittances, and rising sovereign financing costs.
• The country is highly dependent on external factors such as imports, tourism, and foreign aid.
• Unemployment remained a persistent issue, particularly among the youth and graduates, averaging around 13% in 2011.

Policy Priorities

1. Fiscal Sustainability

• The immediate challenge is to reduce fiscal and external imbalances to preserve macroeconomic stability.
• Jordan should proceed with fiscal consolidation to mitigate risks related to high public debt and possible external shocks.
• The 2012 budget included measures to raise revenue (e.g., removing tax exemptions, increasing luxury tax, revamping property taxes) and reduce current spending (e.g., freezing public sector hiring, cutting operational costs of ministries, reforming fuel subsidies).
• Targeted compensatory transfers are planned to replace universal subsidies, aiming to protect the poor while improving fiscal efficiency.

2. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• Maintaining a sufficiently large international reserve buffer is crucial to manage regional and global uncertainties.
• Tightening monetary conditions is necessary to sustain the attractiveness of dinar-denominated assets and control inflation expectations.
• The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has adopted an exchange rate peg to the U.S. dollar, which has helped stabilize inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability.

3. Financial Sector Resilience

• Enhancing the regulation and supervision of the financial sector is essential, especially given the existing robustness of the banking system.
• The CBJ has limited monetary policy tools, but can adjust interest rates, increase reserve requirements, or issue certificates of deposit to manage liquidity.

4. Inclusive Growth and Employment

• Improving the business environment and governance is critical for fostering inclusive growth and reducing unemployment.
• The country aims to boost industry competitiveness, especially in the tourism sector, and improve the quality of public services in health and education.

Outlook and Risks

• Economic Outlook for 2012:
  • Moderate growth of about 2.75% is expected, supported by improved mining and financial services activity, and growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
  • Inflation is projected to rise to nearly 6% due to the resumption of oil price pass-through.
• Key Risks:
  • A large and prolonged increase in commodity prices could reduce growth and increase fiscal and external deficits.
  • Continued sabotage of the Egyptian natural gas pipeline would raise energy costs and increase public debt.
  • Worsening regional unrest could lead to capital outflows, reduced trade, and lower remittances and tourism.
  • Fiscal slippage or failure to implement consolidation measures could worsen debt sustainability.
  • A spike in domestic inflation could increase public and private sector wage demands.

Fiscal and External Performance in 2011

• Real GDP growth was subdued, rising by 2.5% in 2011, driven by growth in mining, finance, and government services.
• Inflation fell to 4.5%, but core inflation increased to 4.5% year-on-year.
• The fiscal deficit reached 6% of GDP, with an additional 2.3% from increased social spending.
• The public debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 64.5% by end-2011, driven by increased borrowing for the National Electric Power Company and other agencies.
• The current account deficit widened to 9.5% of GDP, and international reserves fell by 14% to $10.7 billion.

Financing in 2012

• The 2012 budget aims to reduce the overall deficit by 1.5% of GDP.
• Fiscal financing needs (excluding grants) are expected to reach $2.86 billion (9.1% of GDP), and external financing needs (after FDI, new borrowing, etc.) are expected to be $0.9 billion (2.7% of GDP).
• Financing will continue to rely on domestic banks and reserve drawdown, with reserves expected to decline to about 6 months of imports by end-2012.

Medium-Term Outlook

• A three-year fiscal reform agenda has been approved to ensure long-term sustainability and reduce distortions.
• The goal is to narrow the overall deficit to about 3.5% of GDP by 2014.
• The mission emphasized the need for more ambitious medium-term fiscal targets, as current growth assumptions may not be sufficient to meet these goals until 2017.
• External grants, a traditional source of financing, are expected to remain stable at around 5.5% of GDP.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supported Jordan's fiscal consolidation efforts and emphasized the importance of maintaining the exchange rate peg and enhancing financial sector resilience. The consultation also highlighted the need for structural reforms to improve the business environment and governance. Despite challenges, Jordan's commitment to sound economic policies and its track record of macroeconomic stability were noted. However, the country must continue to address its fiscal and external vulnerabilities, particularly in the context of regional uncertainties and global economic conditions.