那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-目前哪里有过多的债务？-20180504-7页_636kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the current state of debt levels in different regions, focusing on the OECD, China, and emerging countries (excluding China and oil exporters). It outlines three key factors that indicate excessive debt and concludes that debt is particularly dangerous in certain regions.

Main Regions and Debt Trends

The world is divided into three main regions for analysis:

• OECD: United States, United Kingdom, Canada, euro zone, Sweden, Japan, Australia
• China
• Emerging countries, excluding China and oil exporters

The document highlights the long-term upward trend in debt ratios across these regions, with a sharp increase in China in recent years.

Three Factors for Excessive Debt

1. Borrower solvency under interest rate normalization

   • If interest rates return to the level of nominal growth, the debt dynamics become unstable.
   • China and emerging countries (excluding China and oil exporters) show instability, while the OECD remains stable.

2. Debt not matched by capital accumulation

   • Debt that does not finance capital accumulation can be risky if returns on capital are not sufficient to cover interest costs.
   • The OECD and emerging countries (excluding China and oil exporters) show an increase in debt without corresponding capital growth.
   • China is the only region where debt is matched with capital accumulation.

3. Debt not covered by domestic savings

   • If domestic savings do not cover the debt, it results in net external debt, increasing financial fragility.
   • The OECD and emerging countries (excluding China and oil exporters) have accumulated net external debt.
   • China has external assets, indicating that its debt is supported by domestic savings.

Conclusion: Where is the Debt Particularly Dangerous?

The document concludes that debt is particularly dangerous in the following regions:

• OECD: Debt has not financed capital accumulation and results in net external debt.
• China: Debt may lead to fiscal solvency issues if interest rates normalize.
• Emerging countries (excluding China and oil exporters): All three factors (solvency under rate normalization, lack of capital accumulation, and net external debt) apply.

Table 1: Is debt dangerous?

Key Information

• Debt trends are rising globally, with China showing a sharp increase.
• Interest rate normalization poses a significant risk to China and emerging countries (excluding China and oil exporters).
• Capital accumulation is only matched with debt in China.
• Net external debt is present in OECD and emerging countries, but is relatively small.
• China has external assets, suggesting that its debt is not entirely external.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared with third parties without prior written consent from Natixis.
• No personalized investment recommendations are made.
• No liability is accepted for the distribution or use of the document.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• All information is based on public data and may be subject to change.
• Regulatory compliance is ensured in various jurisdictions, with specific mentions of supervision by the ECB, ACPR, AMF, FCA, and others.

Risk Factors

• The information provided is not a financial analysis and does not meet legal requirements for investment research independence.
• The personal views of authors may differ.
• The document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for any investment.