2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Philippines_Selected_Issues_Paper_39页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Philippines: Selected Issues Paper

I. Potential Growth and Prospects

Core Content

This section estimates potential growth in the Philippines using three different methodologies and discusses the medium-term growth prospects. It highlights the importance of investment, employment, and total factor productivity (TFP) as key growth determinants.

Main Points

Potential Growth Trends: Potential growth in the Philippines increased from 3-4% in the 1990s to around 5% in the 2000s.
TFP Growth: TFP growth has increased since the 1990s, while capital contribution has declined. The Philippines shares these trends with other ASEAN economies.
Determinants of TFP: The empirical analysis shows that institutional quality, human capital, and a lower share of agriculture in GDP are positively correlated with TFP growth. Trade openness and foreign direct investment (FDI) also play a role.
Investment and Employment: The Philippines has low investment and employment growth compared to other Asian economies. Infrastructure development and improving the business environment are critical for boosting investment and employment.
Reform Scenario: A reform scenario suggests that potential growth could reach the authorities' 7-8% target by 2015 through improvements in TFP, capital, and labor contributions.

Key Information

TFP Contribution: From 2% historically to 3% by 2015.
Capital Contribution: From 1% historically to 2% by 2015.
Labor Contribution: From 1.6% historically to 2.0% by 2015.
Infrastructure Gaps: The Philippines lags behind regional peers in electricity generation, telephone lines, and paved roads.
Unemployment: The unemployment rate remains high at 7-8%, with underemployment at 18%. Structural issues in the labor market, such as high redundancy costs and regulatory constraints, contribute to this.
Okun's Law: The relationship between output growth and the unemployment rate is weak in the Philippines, suggesting structural inefficiencies in the labor market.

II. Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis System for the Philippines

Core Content

This section discusses the development of a Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis System (FPAS) model for the Philippines, focusing on inflation targeting and the monetary transmission mechanism.

Main Points

Monetary Policy Stance: The monetary policy is currently accommodative due to the output gap closing and low real policy rates.
Inflation Targeting: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) targets an inflation rate of 4.0% for 2011 and 2012, with a tolerance interval of ±1.0%. The target was extended to 3-5% through 2014 to anchor inflation expectations.
FPAS Model: The model is an extension of a small New Keynesian model, incorporating oil prices, macro-financial linkages, and fiscal shocks. It is used to analyze the effects of domestic and global shocks on the economy.
Monetary Transmission: The model includes behavioral equations that capture the aggregate demand and Phillips curve, exchange rate dynamics, and the open-economy Taylor rule.

Key Information

Model Parameters: Estimated using Bayesian techniques with prior distributions from cross-country studies and assumptions about the Philippine economy.
Key Parameters:
- $\beta_{lag}$: 0.68 (estimated), reflecting the impact of past real activity on current output.
- $\beta_{RRgap}$: 0.04, indicating the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism.
- $\beta_{zgap}$: 0.02, reflecting the importance of the exchange rate channel.
- $\beta_{RWygap}$: 0.14, highlighting the non-diversified export dependence.
- $\beta_{FBgap}$: 0.21, showing the positive impact of fiscal conditions on aggregate demand.
Inflation Equation: The $\alpha_{\pi d}$ parameter determines the forward-looking component of inflation, while $1 - \alpha_{\pi d}$ determines the backward-looking component.

III. How will Fiscal Consolidation Affect Growth in the Philippines?

Core Content

This section examines the effects of fiscal consolidation on economic growth, focusing on the transmission channels and short-run impacts.

Main Points

Fiscal Consolidation: The paper analyzes how fiscal consolidation (e.g., reducing deficits, improving revenue) affects growth.
Transmission Channels: Fiscal consolidation can influence growth through changes in public investment, private investment, and macroeconomic stability.
Short-Run Growth: Fiscal consolidation may have a negative short-run effect on growth due to reduced public investment and potential contractionary effects on the economy.
Policy Recommendations: Reversing revenue slippages and improving the business climate are crucial for raising investment and growth.

Key Information

Public Investment: Low public investment in the Philippines is attributed to low public revenue and high debt service burdens.
Private Investment: Improving the business environment and infrastructure can positively impact private investment.
Fiscal Impact: Fiscal consolidation may reduce growth in the short term, but it is necessary for long-term macroeconomic stability and structural reforms.

Conclusion

The Philippines has seen an increase in potential growth from around 3-4% to 5% over the past two decades.
To reach the 7-8% target, the three pillars of growth—TFP, capital, and labor—need to be strengthened.
Improving institutional quality, human capital, and moving from agriculture to higher value sectors can enhance TFP.
Increasing investment and employment requires addressing fiscal slippages, improving the business climate, and enhancing infrastructure.
Fiscal consolidation is necessary for long-term stability but may have short-term growth costs.
The FPAS model provides a useful framework for analyzing inflation targeting and monetary policy in the context of domestic and global shocks.