20140829-Maybank_KERPL-Morning_Bulletin_13页_206kb

报告摘要

Morning Bulletin Summary

Core Content Overview

This Morning Bulletin provides analysis and recommendations for several Chinese and Hong Kong-listed companies across different sectors. The report highlights key financial performance, strategic shifts, and market outlooks, with a focus on earnings, valuation, and investment implications.

Main Points and Key Information

China Mengniu Dairy (2319)

Sector: Consumer
Recommendation: SELL
Target Price (TP): HKD30.90
Key Concerns:
- Profit shifting upstream may undermine market expectations of margin expansion.
- Structural weakness in UHT milk (50% of sales) and competition from upstream peers and imports.
- Adjusted FY14/15/16F estimates by -11% / -4% / -6% respectively.
Consensus: 18 Buys, 14 Holds, 4 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD39.78

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)

Sector: Banking
Recommendation: U/G to BUY
TP: HKD5.90
Key Highlights:
- Earnings slightly above consensus due to higher NIM and lower credit costs.
- Loan growth and NIM widening.
- CET1 CAR increased to 11.4% due to IRB adoption.
Consensus: 31 Buys, 5 Holds, 2 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD6.13

China CITIC Bank (998)

Sector: Banking
Recommendation: HOLD
TP: HKD5.15
Key Insights:
- Earnings beat forecast, but capital constraints may require dividend cuts.
- Net fee growth and AIEA growth are strong.
- Conservative credit cost forecast of 0.94-1.05% for 2014-16.
Consensus: 12 Buys, 15 Holds, 5 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD5.10

China Minsheng Banking (1988)

Sector: Banking
Recommendation: SELL
TP: HKD5.60
Key Issues:
- Fundamentals are deteriorating.
- CIR increased due to higher IT and channel spending.
- Under-provision for loans and risky assets.
Consensus: 21 Buys, 10 Holds, 7 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD7.79

China Shenhua (1088 HK)

Sector: Materials
Recommendation: BUY
TP: HKD25.00
Key Points:
- Coal market fundamentals are bottoming.
- Strong non-coal business growth and cost reductions.
- TP increased by 4% based on 3x FY15E P/BV.
Consensus: 23 Buys, 5 Holds, 4 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD25.34

GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK)

Sector: Energy
Recommendation: BUY
TP: HKD3.90
Key Highlights:
- Strong sales and results in 1H14.
- Improved gross margin for solar material business to 24.7%.
- Cost reductions in polysilicon and wafer production.
Consensus: 24 Buys, 4 Holds, 4 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD3.21

China Merchants Holdings (144)

Sector: Transport
Recommendation: BUY
TP: HKD29.55
Key Notes:
- Earnings growth driven by port projects.
- Net gearing increased to 70.5% in 1H14.
- TP based on 12-month forward NAV.
Consensus: 16 Buys, 4 Holds, 2 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD30.33

CNOOC (883)

Sector: Oil & Gas
Recommendation: HOLD
TP: HKD14.44
Key Points:
- 1H14 net profit slightly below expectations due to financing costs.
- Strong production volume and cost control.
- TP derived from DCF model.
Consensus: 18 Buys, 11 Holds, 4 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD15.35

PetroChina (857)

Sector: Oil & Gas
Recommendation: BUY
TP: HKD11.50
Key Insights:
- 1H14 results in line with expectations.
- Natural gas guidance for FY15 is positive, with potential CNY18-20b in earnings.
- TP based on DCF model.
Consensus: 22 Buys, 10 Holds, 3 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD11.55

KWG Property (1813)

Sector: Property
Recommendation: D/G HOLD
TP: HKD6.00
Key Highlights:
- Strong contract sales growth and core margin.
- Net gearing increased to 70.5% due to land purchases.
- TP based on 47% discount to NAV.
Consensus: 23 Buys, 4 Holds, 0 Sells; Consensus TP: HKD6.35

China Property

Sector: Property
Recommendation: OVERWEIGHT
Key Insight:
- Talks of Hangzhou loosening mortgage downpayment requirements are positive.
- Developers with Hangzhou exposure, such as Sunac and Sino-Ocean, could benefit.
- Sunac is recommended as BUY with TP HKD7.30.