2024-10-13-Incrementum-2024年10月月度黄金指南针（英）_82页_2mb
报告摘要
Monthly Gold Compass Summary - October 2024
Core Content Overview
This document provides an in-depth analysis of the performance of gold and silver across various currencies and time periods, including insights on miners, macroeconomic factors, and long-term trends. It is authored by Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark J. Valek, and is sourced from Reuters Eikon and Incrementum AG.
1. Gold
Key Insights:
- Gold as a Global Currency: Alan Greenspan states that gold is the primary global currency, alongside silver, and does not require a counterparty signature.
- Performance in Major Currencies (2000–2024 YTD):
- Gold showed mixed performance, with notable gains in some currencies like EUR, GBP, and AUD, and losses in others such as USD and JPY.
- In 2024 YTD, gold gained 27.7% in USD, with an average return of 27.3% across all currencies.
- Annualized Performance (2000–2024):
- The annualized performance of gold, if bought on the last day of the month and held until 09/30/2024, was generally positive, with the highest returns in 2013 and 2018.
- In 2023, the average annualized return was 7.4%.
- Correlation Analysis (09/30/2024):
- Gold showed negative correlation with the DXY (Dollar Index) and positive correlation with GDX (Gold Miners ETF) over different time frames.
- The correlation with the S&P 500 was moderate, ranging from -0.14 to 0.42.
- Gold had a strong positive correlation with the CRB TR (Commodity Research Bureau Index) and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) over various periods.
- In 2024, the 52-week high for gold was recorded on 11/13/2023, and the 52-week low on 1/5/2024.
2. Silver
Key Insights:
- Silver as a Tough Investment: Rich Ross mentions that trading silver is a tough way to make an easy living.
- Performance in Major Currencies (2000–2024 YTD):
- Silver's performance was more volatile compared to gold, with significant gains in 2005 and 2010, and notable losses in 2008 and 2013.
- In 2024 YTD, silver gained 31.1% in USD, with an average return of 30.6% across all currencies.
- Annualized Performance (2000–2024):
- The annualized performance of silver was also mixed, with the highest returns in 2018 and the lowest in 2010.
- In 2023, the average annualized return was 17.5%.
- Correlation Analysis (09/30/2024):
- Silver had a negative correlation with the DXY and a strong positive correlation with SIL (Silver Miners ETF).
- The correlation with the S&P 500 was moderate, ranging from -0.19 to 0.71.
- Silver had a positive correlation with the CRB TR and WTI, with the highest correlation observed over 30-day periods.
- In 2024, the 52-week high for silver was recorded on 8/16/2024, and the 52-week low on 1/5/2024.
3. Miner
Key Insights:
- Miners in Bear Markets: Shelby Cullom Davis highlights that most of the money is made in a bear market, though it is not realized at the time.
- Performance of Miners (2022–2024):
- The performance of bullion and miners was analyzed from October 2022 to September 2024.
- Miners like HUI and GDX had varied returns, with some months showing strong positive performance and others negative.
- In January 2024, miners showed negative returns, while in November 2023, they had strong positive returns.
4. Macro
- Macro Trends: The report discusses macroeconomic factors influencing the performance of gold and silver, such as inflation, currency fluctuations, and market sentiment.
- Interest Rates and Inflation: These factors are closely linked to the performance of both commodities, with gold often serving as a hedge against inflation.
- Market Volatility: The VIX (Volatility Index) showed a moderate correlation with both gold and silver, indicating that market volatility can impact their prices.
5. Long Term Charts
- Long-Term Performance: The long-term charts show the historical price movements of gold and silver from 1970 to 2024.
- Gold Chart (USD): The chart illustrates gold's price trajectory, highlighting its performance over the years.
- Silver Chart (USD): The chart shows the price movements of silver, emphasizing its volatility and correlation with other commodities and indices.
6. Proprietary Models
- Incrementum AG Models: The report uses proprietary models from Incrementum AG to analyze the performance and trends of gold and silver.
- Gold vs. Silver: The performance of gold and silver relative to each other is also analyzed, with the Gold/Silver Ratio being a key indicator.
Key Takeaways
- Gold has shown consistent performance over the years, with notable gains in 2024 YTD and strong positive correlations with commodities and indices.
- Silver has been more volatile, with significant gains in certain periods and losses in others.
- Miners have had mixed returns, often performing better in bear markets.
- Macroeconomic Factors such as inflation and currency fluctuations significantly influence the performance of both metals.
- Correlation Analysis reveals that gold and silver are influenced by similar macroeconomic indicators, but their relationships with other assets like the S&P 500 and VIX differ.
Summary of Performance
Gold Performance in Major Currencies (2000–2024 YTD)
| Year | USD | EUR | GBP | AUD | CAD | CNY | JPY | CHF | INR | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -5.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 11.3% | -1.9% | -5.4% | 5.8% | -4.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 2001 | 2.4% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 18.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% |
| 2002 | 24.4% | 5.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 22.9% | 24.4% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 23.7% | 15.8% |
| 2003 | 19.6% | -0.2% | 8.0% | -10.7% | -1.3% | 19.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 7.2% |
| 2004 | 5.6% | -1.9% | -1.7% | 1.5% | -2.0% | 5.6% | 0.8% | -3.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 2005 | 18.1% | 35.1% | 31.6% | 25.9% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 35.9% | 36.3% | 22.8% | 26.1% |
| 2006 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 14.3% | 23.3% | 19.0% | 24.2% | 14.1% | 20.7% | 17.5% |
| 2007 | 30.9% | 18.5% | 29.2% | 18.0% | 12.0% | 22.5% | 22.5% | 21.8% | 16.9% | 21.4% |
| 2008 | 5.4% | 10.0% | 43.1% | 30.5% | 28.7% | -1.5% | -14.2% | -0.8% | 30.0% | 14.6% |
| 2009 | 24.8% | 21.8% | 12.9% | -1.6% | 7.9% | 24.8% | 27.9% | 21.1% | 19.2% | 17.6% |
| 2010 | 29.5% | 38.6% | 34.2% | 13.6% | 22.8% | 25.1% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 24.8% | 24.3% |
| 2011 | 10.2% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 10.7% | 30.7% | 12.1% |
| 2012 | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 20.7% | 4.5% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| 2013 | -28.0% | -30.9% | -29.4% | -16.1% | -23.0% | -30.1% | -12.6% | -29.8% | -19.1% | -24.3% |
| 2014 | -1.8% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 0.2% | 5.6% |
| 2015 | -10.4% | -0.1% | -5.3% | 0.6% | 6.8% | -6.2% | -9.9% | -9.7% | -5.9% | -4.5% |
| 2016 | 8.5% | 12.1% | 29.6% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 16.1% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 12.0% |
| 2017 | 13.1% | -0.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% |
| 2018 | -1.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.1% | -4.2% | -0.8% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| 2019 | 18.3% | 21.0% | 13.7% | 18.8% | 12.6% | 19.7% | 17.2% | 16.6% | 21.3% | 17.7% |
| 2020 | 25.0% | 14.8% | 21.3% | 14.1% | 22.6% | 17.2% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 28.0% | 19.6% |
| 2021 | -3.6% | 3.6% | -2.6% | 2.2% | -4.3% | -6.1% | 7.5% | -0.6% | -1.7% | -0.6% |
| 2022 | -0.2% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 10.8% | 7.2% |
| 2023 | 13.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 21.6% | 2.9% | 13.7% | 12.0% |
| 2024 YTD | 27.7% | 26.6% | 21.5% | 25.9% | 30.4% | 26.3% | 30.0% | 28.3% | 28.6% | 27.3% |
Silver Performance in Major Currencies (2000–2024 YTD)
| Year | USD | EUR | GBP | AUD | CAD | CNY | JPY | CHF | INR | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -15.0% | -9.1% | -8.4% | 0.0% | -11.9% | -15.0% | -5.0% | -13.9% | -8.9% | -9.7% |
| 2001 | 0.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 0.4% | 15.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% |
| 2002 | 3.3% | -12.4% | -6.8% | -6.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | -6.9% | -14.1% | 2.7% | -3.9% |
| 2003 | 24.6% | 3.9% | 12.5% | -7.0% | 2.7% | 24.6% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 18.6% | 11.6% |
| 2004 | 14.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 14.5% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% |
| 2005 | 29.7% | 48.5% | 44.6% | 38.4% | 25.4% | 26.5% | 49.3% | 49.8% | 35.0% | 38.6% |
| 2006 | 46.1% | 31.1% | 28.4% | 35.8% | 46.4% | 41.3% | 47.4% | 35.5% | 43.3% | 39.5% |
| 2007 | 14.8% | 3.8% | 13.3% | 3.4% | -1.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 6.4% |
| 2008 | -23.5% | -20.2% | 3.9% | -5.3% | -6.6% | -28.5% | -37.7% | -28.0% | -5.6% | -16.8% |
| 2009 | 48.9% | 45.4% | 34.7% | 17.5% | 28.8% | 49.0% | 52.7% | 44.6% | 42.3% | 40.4% |
| 2010 | 83.4% | 96.2% | 89.9% | 60.8% | 73.8% | 77.0% | 60.2% | 65.3% | 76.6% | 75.9% |
| 2011 | -10.3% | -7.2% | -9.9% | -10.2% | -8.2% | -14.3% | -14.9% | -9.9% | 6.4% | -8.7% |
| 2012 | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 23.4% | 6.9% | 13.6% | 9.8% |
| 2013 | -36.0% | -38.5% | -37.2% | -25.4% | -31.4% | -37.8% | -22.3% | -37.5% | -28.0% | -32.7% |
| 2014 | -19.3% | -8.3% | -14.2% | -11.9% | -11.7% | -17.3% | -8.3% | -10.2% | -17.7% | -13.2% |
| 2015 | -11.7% | -1.6% | -6.7% | -0.9% | 5.2% | -7.6% | -11.2% | -11.0% | -7.2% | -5.9% |
| 2016 | 15.2% | 19.0% | 37.6% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 23.2% | 11.9% | 17.1% | 18.3% | 18.9% |
| 2017 | 6.4% | -6.8% | -2.9% | -1.6% | -0.4% | -0.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
| 2018 | -8.7% | -4.4% | -3.2% | 1.0% | -1.0% | -3.5% | -11.2% | -8.0% | -0.5% | -4.4% |
| 2019 | 15.2% | 17.8% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 9.7% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 18.1% | 14.6% |
| 2020 | 47.8% | 35.7% | 43.4% | 34.9% | 44.9% | 38.6% | 40.5% | 35.2% | 51.3% | 41.4% |
| 2021 | -11.7% | -5.2% | -10.8% | -6.5% | -12.4% | -14.1% | -1.6% | -9.0% | -10.0% | -9.0% |
| 2022 | 3.0% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 4.4% | 14.4% | 10.6% |
| 2023 | -0.9% | -3.8% | -5.8% | -0.8% | -3.1% | 2.0% | 6.7% | -9.7% | -0.3% | -1.7% |
| 2024 YTD | 31.1% | 30.0% | 24.8% | 29.2% | 33.9% | 29.6% | 33.5% | 31.7% | 32.0% | 30.6% |
Key Correlation Data
Gold Correlation (09/30/2024)
| Timeframe | DXY | GDX | S&P 500 | VIX | CRB TR | WTI | Copper | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15D | -0.40 | 0.91 | 0.34 | -0.37 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| 30D | -0.47 | 0.86 | 0.42 | -0.44 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.59 | 0.39 |
| 60D | -0.29 | 0.82 | 0.41 | -0.31 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| 90D | -0.38 | 0.85 | 0.34 | -0.20 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 0.57 | 0.20 |
| 120D | -0.37 | 0.83 | 0.31 | -0.17 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.53 | 0.17 |
| 150D | -0.37 | 0.83 | 0.29 | -0.14 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.49 | 0.19 |
| 180D | -0.38 | 0.82 | 0.29 | -0.16 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 0.46 | 0.15 |
Silver Correlation (09/30/2024)
| Timeframe | DXY | SIL | S&P 500 | VIX | CRB TR | WTI | Copper | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15D | -0.47 | 0.92 | 0.49 | -0.45 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| 30D | -0.54 | 0.89 | 0.61 | -0.59 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| 60D | -0.23 | 0.77 | 0.55 | -0.41 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| 90D | -0.30 | 0.80 | 0.42 | -0.22 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| 120D | -0.31 | 0.80 | 0.36 | -0.19 | 0.51 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| 150D | -0.34 | 0.81 | 0.33 | -0.18 | 0.48 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| 180D | -0.34 | 0.79 | 0.32 | -0.19 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.15 |
Conclusion
The report highlights the importance of gold and silver as global currencies and their performance relative to other assets. Gold has shown more consistent and positive returns, while silver has been more volatile. The correlation data indicates that both metals are influenced by similar macroeconomic factors, but their relationships with other assets like the S&P 500 and VIX differ. Miners, especially those focused on gold and silver, have shown varied performance, with notable gains in certain periods and losses in others. The data suggests that gold may be a more stable investment compared to silver, especially in bear markets.
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