世界银行-索马里加入东非共同体的经济评估（英）-2025_57页_2mb

报告摘要

EAC Integration for Somalia: Analysis and Recommendations

Executive Summary
Somalia's accession to the East African Community (EAC) from 2027 offers transformative opportunities, such as access to a 300 million-strong market and enhanced trade, investment, and regional cooperation. However, it faces significant challenges:

Export reliance on livestock and limited value addition.
Institutional weaknesses and informal economy constraints.
Infrastructure gaps in connectivity and trade facilitation.
Revenue vulnerability due to the Common External Tariff (CET), leading to potential US$22 million shortfalls.

Key Recommendations (Table below):

Maximize regional integration with EAC and non-EAC partners, diversify trade, and enhance revenue mobilization.
Adopt a phased approach to CET implementation and invest in capacity-building.
Strengthen customs alignment, leverage regional frameworks like AfCFTA, and formalize trade to mitigate revenue losses.

Sectoral Revenue Impact

High tariff increases (e.g., sugar from 35% to 100%) are expected to decline imports by ~67%.
Services and CET-related reforms will require legal harmonization and digitalization for efficiency.

Policy Actions

Short-term: Exit tax adjustments, stakeholder engagement, and technical assistance for compliance.
Medium-term: Develop industrial zones, enhance manufacturing, and align federal fiscal policies.

Summary of Policy Recommendations for Somalia's EAC Integration:

Short-Term Actions (by June 2026)	Medium-Long-Term Actions (Beyond 2026)
Maximize Regional Integration<br>- Facilitate joint ventures with EAC members to transfer technology. <br>- Align domestic policies with EAC protocols and bolster trade.	<br>- Integrate into regional supply chains, especially in foodstuffs and intermediate goods. <br>- Secure legal reforms for competition, standards, and dispute resolution.
Cultivate Trade Relationships with Non-EAC Partners<br>- Explore alternative markets to mitigate trade diversion. <br>- Deepen export partnerships with GCC, China, and India.	- Diversify exports by investing in agro-processing and textiles. <br>- Leverage AfCFTA for continental trade opportunities.
Streamline Customs and Trade Facilitation<br>- Alignment with EAC customs standards and reduce delays at borders. <br>- Digitalize customs operations and improve tax administration.	- Establish specialized clusters for food processing and align investments with regional industrial policies. <br>- Enhance partnerships with EAC Members for market access and education.
Diversify Trade and Boost Revenue Retail diversification, completize production (e.g., meat-processing plants), target higher value-added items. <br>- Innovations in fiscal policy, including income tax harmonization.