20240729-德邦证券-美联储7月利率决议前瞻_预备_降息_展望中性_4页_716kb

Investment Focus: US Federal Reserve July Interest Rate Decision Overview

Analysis Background
On July 31 ET (Aug 1 Beijing Time), the Federal Reserve released its latest interest rate decision. According to the CME Fed Fund Futures model, the target interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. The market anticipates the first rate cut in September.

Economic data indicates that inflation is cooling, with the core PCE index at 2.6% in May (a three-year low) and 0.1%环比 (a new low since the start of the year). Job data may signal a potential turning point for economic downturn.

In his July 10 testimony, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the Fed does not need to wait until inflation falls below 2% to begin cutting rates. This signals the policy goal has shifted from solely controlling inflation to balancing inflation and employment. As such, the market expects the easing cycle to unfold from September.

Current Market Views

• The Fed's benchmark rate is expected to remain unchanged at this meeting.
• Powell’s speech will likely adopt a neutral to dovish tone, laying the groundwork for September’s potential rate cut.
• Markets expect a 25bps cut in September with an 85.8% probability, a 61.5% chance of another 25bps cut in November.

Market Impact Assessment
Market expectations center around Powell's interpretation of recent economic divergence and his stance on September interest cuts.

Potential Market Reactions

• If the Fed signals a dovish stance, gold may be supported, and small-cap US stocks may remain strong.
• Conversely, any hawkish signal may trigger a broader market downturn.

Risk Assessments

1. Unexpected inflation
   If inflation declines slower than expected, the Fed may tighten policy again. Global risk assets, particularly copper and gold, may be affected.
2. Weaker-than-expected global growth
   A turning point in the US economy could harm global markets.
3. Escalation of geopolitical tensions
   Escalated conflicts (e.g., in the Middle East) may trigger sharp market volatility.

Disclaimer
The content of this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market movements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Users should not make investment decisions solely based on this report without considering their own investment goals and risk tolerance.