2025-11-27-莱坊-Investment_market_Q3_2025_3页_742kb

Poland Commercial Property Investment Market Overview (Q3 2025)

The Polish commercial property investment market shows resilience in Q3 2025, with investment volumes declining 8% year-on-year to EUR 2.6 billion, but market liquidity remains strong due to high transaction activity and numerous deals in negotiation. An active Q4 is anticipated, with a potential rebound in investment volume despite expected lower overall figures for 2025 compared to 2024.

Office Sector

Office assets continued to dominate investment, accounting for EUR 899 million in Q1-Q3 2025. Competitive yields and prospects for capital appreciation make it attractive for institutional investors and local entities. Notable transactions include Manova Partners' acquisition of the Vibe office building in Warsaw and Generali's purchase of Dom Dochodowy.Polish. Office's share highlights long-term market potential, with local capital participation nearing 50% in some quarters.

Retail Sector

Retail investments totaled EUR 453 million, with smaller properties (under 10,000 sq m) in smaller towns being primary targets. Average deal sizes under EUR 12 million underscore sustained demand. Local investors contributed significantly, and the sector maintains growth driven by consumer demand and low vacancy rates.

Warehouse Sector

Warehouse investments surged, reaching over EUR 873 million in Q1-Q3 2025, comprising 34% of total investments. This growth, up 18% year-on-year, is fueled by strong residential market fundamentals and logistics demand, with Poland positioned as a key logistics hub in Central Europe.

Capital Origin

Domestic capital played a major role, with Poland accounting for 22% of total investment capital origin. Local entities drove 40% of office investments, reflecting a shift toward commercial RE as a vehicle for long-term capital allocation. Foreign capital from countries like Germany, the US, and the UK also contributed.

Yields and Macroeconomic Factors

Yields remained stable, typically above 5%, making Poland attractive to investors compared to Western Europe. Macroeconomic strengths, such as robust GDP growth (forecast 3.2-4.0% annually by 2027) and low unemployment, underpin the market's resilience and long-term potential.

Overall, the market is in a stable recovery phase, supported by high liquidity and competitive conditions, positioning Poland as a dynamic investment destination in Europe.