2026-07-22-莱坊-Investment_market_h1_2026_4页_1mb

Investment Market in Poland (H1 2026) Summary

Core Content Overview

The Polish investment market showed strong recovery in the first half of 2026, driven by robust macroeconomic fundamentals, resilient occupier demand, and limited new supply. This has resulted in declining vacancy rates and rental growth, particularly in prime office assets. The market is expected to maintain its momentum, with total investment volume projected to exceed EUR 6 billion for the year, marking the strongest annual performance since the pandemic.

Key Market Trends

Investment Volume Growth

• Total Investment Volume: Exceeded EUR 3 billion in H1 2026, up 77% year-on-year.
• Q2 Performance: Transaction volume doubled compared to Q1, indicating a strong acceleration in the second quarter.
• Annual Projection: Total investment volume in 2026 is likely to surpass EUR 6 billion.

Sector Performance

• Retail Sector: Became the largest investment sector in H1 2026, accounting for 34% of total investment volume. Investment volume tripled year-on-year to EUR 1.03 billion.
• Industrial & Logistics: Ranked second with a 26% share. Transaction volume reached nearly EUR 782 million, up 13% year-on-year.
• Office Sector: Ranked third with a 20% share. Investment volume reached EUR 594 million, up 35% year-on-year.
• Living Sector: Recorded a significant increase, with a 19% share of total investment volume. The sector had one major transaction: the sale of the Resi4Rent portfolio for EUR 1.03 billion.
• Hotel Sector: Accounted for the remaining 2% of total investment volume.

Capital Origins

• Czech Republic: Dominated the market with 25% of total investment volume.
• USA: Maintained a strong presence with 19% of total investment volume.
• Germany: Contributed 19%.
• Poland: Accounted for 11% of total investment volume, with the largest transaction involving Polish capital being the acquisition of Central Point in Warsaw.
• Hungary: Represented 7%.
• France, South Korea, Sweden, Belgium, Lithuania, Estonia: Combined contributed 5%.
• Other Countries: Accounted for the remaining 5%.

Transaction Activity

• Number of Transactions: Nearly 70 completed in H1 2026, with eight deals exceeding EUR 100 million.
• Average Transaction Size: Doubled compared to the same period last year, reflecting improving market depth and investor confidence.
• Major Transactions:
  • Resi4Rent Portfolio: Largest transaction in the living sector, sold to Vantage Development.
  • Posnania Shopping Centre (70%): Acquired by Trigea Real Estate Fund.
  • Savills IM Portfolio: Purchased by Ares Management Corporation.
  • Raben S&LB Portfolio: Acquired by WP Carey.
  • Auchan Portfolio: Acquired by Adventum (Shopper Park Plus).
  • Vendo Parks Portfolio: Acquired by Star Capital Finance.
  • Central Point: Largest Polish-led transaction, acquired by Lewandpol Property.
  • Royal Wilanow: Acquired by Wood & Company.

Prime Yields

• Industrial & Logistics: Estimated at 6.25% - 6.5%.
• Shopping Centres: Estimated at 6.25%.
• Office: Estimated at 6.0%.
• Built-to-Rent (BTR): Estimated at 5.5%.
• Yield Compression Outlook: Expected in the prime Warsaw office market, with long-term fundamentals and sustained demand for quality assets supporting further compression.

Investor Sentiment and Market Depth

• Investor Confidence: Renewed, with a focus on prime assets and long-term growth.
• Local and Regional Investors: Most active, often identifying value creation opportunities first.
• Global Institutional Interest: Continued, especially in logistics and retail sectors.

Outlook

Poland's investment market is well-positioned for sustained growth, supported by:

• Strong macroeconomic fundamentals.
• Resilient occupier demand.
• Limited new supply.
• Strategic location and long-term growth prospects.

The market is increasingly being re-evaluated by investors as a compelling alternative to traditional core European markets, with a focus on high-quality assets and long-term value creation.