2025-06-01-莱坊-Investment_market_Q1_2025_4页_228kb

Polish Commercial Property Investment Market Overview Q1 2025

The Polish investment market is in a recovery phase, characterized by rising transaction volumes and numerous deals in advanced negotiation stages. Institutional investors and domestic capital are increasing their involvement, fostering a positive outlook. GDP growth for Q1 2025 stood at 3.3%, significantly above the Eurozone average, with forecasts suggesting continued growth around 3% in the coming years. This positions Poland among EU leaders, potentially benefiting from trade shifts like nearshoring and logistics relocations, which drive demand for modern warehouse space.

Total investment volume reached EUR 686 million, a 64% rise year-on-year, with improved liquidity. Factors include central bank monetary easing, boosting capital availability and reducing financing costs. Investment sources in Q1 2025 included significant inflows from Israel, the USA, Ukraine, and the UK, alongside substantial domestic capital.

Sector Performance:

• Warehouse: Investment volume was EUR 202 million, up 47% year-on-year, driven by e-commerce and logistics growth, with prime yields at 6.5–6.75%. High-yield opportunistic deals dominated.
• Office: Investment activity surged, with transactions primarily outside Warsaw; office properties saw EUR 176 million in value, up 64% year-on-year. Warsaw accounted for over half the volume, but yields peaked at over 6%.
• Retail: Investment volume and transactions increased, with local capital prominent; values rose 64% year-on-year following a threefold transaction increase. Demand remains strong amid economic activity revival.
• Living (BTR/PBSA): Investment reached approximately EUR 100 million, accounting for 15% of total volume. Higher yields compared to Western Europe make this sector attractive, supported by a housing deficit and population growth.

Looking ahead, Poland's GDP growth projections are one of the highest in the EU, expected to sustain the upward trend in investment volumes across all sectors.