2021-05-31-WTO-二十国集团贸易监测报告_G20经济体正在陆续撤销一些新冠应对措施（英文）_130页_3mb

G20 Trade Measures Report Summary (Mid-October 2020 to Mid-May 2021)

Core Content

This report, the 25th WTO Trade Monitoring Report on G20 trade measures, provides an overview of trade and trade-related policies implemented by G20 economies during the period from mid-October 2020 to mid-May 2021. It highlights the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on global trade and the role of the WTO in promoting transparency and cooperation among G20 members.

Main Economic and Trade Developments

World Trade and Output

• Trade Growth: World trade and output grew faster than expected in the first half of 2021, after a sharp decline in the second half of 2020.
• Monetary and Fiscal Support: Strong government support, including monetary and fiscal policies, and the availability of effective vaccines helped drive recovery.
• Merchandise Trade:
  • Volume of world merchandise trade increased by 11.4% (quarter-on-quarter) in Q3 2020 and 4.4% in Q4 2020.
  • Trade volumes returned to levels seen in Q4 2019, but the recovery was slower than after the 2008-09 financial crisis.
  • In 2020, the volume of world merchandise trade fell by 5.3%, while its nominal value dropped by 8%.
• Services Trade:
  • Commercial services trade recovered more slowly due to lockdowns and travel restrictions.
  • Services trade declined by 28% in Q2 2020 and remained down by 19% in Q4 2020.
  • The value of services trade fell by 20% in 2020.

Trade Forecast and Outlook

• The WTO forecasts a 8% increase in world merchandise trade in 2021 and 4% in 2022.
• Two alternative scenarios are considered:
  • Upside Scenario: Accelerated vaccine production and dissemination could lead to a 1 percentage point increase in GDP growth and 2.5 percentage points increase in trade volume growth.
  • Downside Scenario: If vaccine production lags or resistant strains emerge, GDP growth could fall by 1 percentage point, and trade growth by 2 percentage points.
• The report emphasizes the importance of vaccine equity and global cooperation for a sustainable economic recovery.

Trade Policy Developments

Trade Measures (Goods)

• Total Measures: 140 trade and trade-related measures were implemented by G20 economies.
• Trade Facilitating Measures: 101 (72%) were trade facilitating, including tariff reductions on medical supplies and temporary zero tariffs on vaccines.
• Trade Restrictive Measures: 39 (28%) were trade restrictive, with export bans accounting for over 90% of these.
• Rollback of Measures:
  • 22% of trade facilitating measures and 49% of trade restrictive measures were terminated by mid-May 2021.
  • The trade coverage of trade-restrictive measures was USD 98.8 billion, slightly higher than trade-facilitating measures (USD 96.5 billion).

Trade Remedies

• Initiations: The number of trade remedy initiations reached its lowest level since 2012, with an average of 15 per month.
• Terminations: The average number of trade remedy terminations was 17 per month, the highest since 2012.
• Trade Coverage: Trade remedy coverage in the review period was USD 15.9 billion, down from USD 34.1 billion in the previous period.
• Anti-Dumping Actions: Two G20 members notified anti-dumping actions related to the pandemic.

Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Measures

• SPS Notifications: G20 economies submitted 35 (42%) of all 84 SPS notifications and communications related to the pandemic.
• Objectives: Most SPS measures aimed at food safety, including maximum residue limits (MRLs), food additives, and pesticides.
• Shift in Measures: SPS measures evolved from restrictions on animal imports to facilitating measures allowing electronic certificates for checks.

Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Measures

• TBT Notifications: G20 economies submitted 89 (58%) of all 153 TBT notifications related to the pandemic.
• Objectives: Most TBT measures were aimed at protecting human health or safety.
• Trade Concerns: 35 (80%) of the 44 new Specific Trade Concerns (STCs) discussed in the TBT Committee were related to G20 measures.

Trade in Services

• New Measures: G20 economies introduced 7 new trade-related services measures during the review period.
• Continued Measures: Many measures were extended, and some were terminated.
• Non-COVID-19 Measures: 66 regular trade measures in services were introduced, mainly foreign investment screening, digital services taxes, and app bans on national security grounds.
• Most Trade Restrictive: Almost all of these measures were trade restrictive, with only 44% being trade facilitating.

Intellectual Property (IP) and Trade

• G20 economies implemented substantive IP-related measures to facilitate access to health technologies.
• TRIPS Waiver Discussions: Several WTO Members discussed proposals to waive certain TRIPS provisions related to vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics.
• Domestic Frameworks: G20 economies continued to fine-tune their IP frameworks to support innovation and access.

Other Trade Policy Issues

• General Economic Support: G20 economies implemented a wide range of economic support measures, including grants, loans, and stimulus packages.
• Total Support Measures: A total of 908 support measures were communicated, including 618 from G20 economies and 290 from public sources.
• Support for MSMEs: Measures included fiscal and financial support for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).
• International Cooperation: The G20 and other international organizations emphasized the need for cooperation and transparency to ensure open markets and supply chain resilience.

Key Findings

• Trade Policy Restraint: G20 economies and WTO Members avoided protectionist measures, preventing a negative spiral in global trade.
• Vaccine Equity: Ensuring equitable vaccine distribution is critical for economic recovery and public health.
• Transparency and Coordination: The WTO played a central role in monitoring and reporting on trade measures, promoting transparency and cooperation.
• Rollback Trends: The rollback of trade-facilitating measures occurred faster than that of trade-restrictive measures, suggesting a positive trend in trade policy.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of global cooperation, transparency, and policy restraint in navigating the economic and trade challenges posed by the pandemic. It highlights the resilience of the multilateral trading system, the need for vaccine equity, and the role of the WTO in facilitating open and inclusive trade. The continued focus on services trade, technical barriers, and intellectual property reflects the evolving nature of trade policy in a post-pandemic world.