深度-WTO-二十国集团贸易监测报告：G20经济体正在陆续撤销一些新冠应对措施（英文）-2021.6-130页_2mb

Summary of the G20 Trade Monitoring Report (Mid-October 2020 to Mid-May 2021)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of trade and trade-related measures implemented by G20 economies from mid-October 2020 to mid-May 2021. It highlights the evolving trade landscape in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and assesses the impact of these measures on global economic recovery and international trade flows.

Main Economic and Trade Developments

World Trade and Output Growth

• Positive Trends: World trade and output grew faster than expected in the first half of 2021, recovering from sharp declines in the second half of 2020.
• Monetary and Fiscal Support: Strong government support, including monetary and fiscal policies, and the availability of effective vaccines contributed to the recovery.
• Merchandise Trade Growth:
  • World merchandise trade volume increased by 11.4% in Q3 2020 and 4.4% in Q4 2020.
  • By Q4 2020, merchandise trade returned to its level in Q4 2019.
  • For the whole of 2020, merchandise trade volume fell by 5.3%, while trade in nominal US dollars fell by 8%.
• Services Trade Recovery:
  • Services trade recovered more slowly due to lockdowns and travel restrictions.
  • Commercial services trade declined by 28% in Q2 2020 and remained down 19% in Q4 2020.
• Trade Forecast:
  • The WTO forecasts a 8% increase in world merchandise trade in 2021 and 4% in 2022.
  • A 4.4% increase in 2021 is expected if vaccine production and distribution accelerate, with a 2.5% increase in trade volume.

Trade Policy Trends

• Trade Facilitating Measures:
  • 101 out of 140 trade measures were trade facilitating, including reductions or eliminations of import tariffs (60% of facilitating measures).
  • Three G20 members temporarily eliminated import tariffs on COVID-19 vaccines, increasing the number of G20 members with zero rate MFN applied tariffs in this sector to 10.
• Trade Restrictive Measures:
  • 39 out of 140 trade measures were trade restrictive, with export bans accounting for over 90% of these.
  • By mid-May 2021, 22% of facilitating measures and 49% of restrictive measures had been terminated.
• Trade Coverage:
  • Trade-facilitating measures covered USD 215.7 billion, while trade-restrictive measures covered USD 135.7 billion.
  • Trade coverage of restrictive measures still in force (USD 98.8 billion) was slightly higher than that of facilitating measures (USD 96.5 billion).

Support Measures

• Total Support Measures:
  • 908 support measures were implemented by G20 economies, including 618 communicated directly to the WTO Secretariat and 290 identified from public sources.
  • These measures targeted sectors such as agriculture, health, transport, tourism, and MSMEs.
• International Support:
  • Support programs from intergovernmental organizations, regional banks, and bilateral donors complemented national measures, including grants, loans, vaccination programs, and debt relief.
• Trend:
  • The pace of introducing new support measures decreased during the review period.

Trade in Services

• Measures Implemented:
  • 7 new trade-related measures in the services sector were introduced by G20 economies.
• Regular Measures:
  • 66 non-COVID-related trade measures in services were implemented, mostly horizontal measures related to foreign investment, digital services, and financial services.
  • Most of these were trade-restrictive, including new foreign investment screening procedures, digital services taxes, and app bans.
• Transparency:
  • G20 economies submitted 89% of all TBT notifications and 35% of all SPS notifications related to the pandemic.

Trade Remedies

• Lowest Level of Initiations:
  • Initiations of trade remedy investigations reached their lowest level since 2012, with a monthly average of 15.
• Anti-Dumping Dominance:
  • Anti-dumping investigations accounted for 80% of all trade remedy initiations.
• Trade Coverage:
  • Trade remedy coverage was USD 15.9 billion, down from USD 34.1 billion in the previous period.
  • Terminations of trade remedies increased to USD 14.2 billion, up from USD 2 billion.
• Impact on Trade:
  • Trade remedies accounted for 79% of all non-COVID-related trade measures on goods.

Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Measures

• SPS Measures:
  • SPS measures accounted for 66% of all regular notifications and 35% of emergency notifications since 1995.
  • Food safety was the most common objective in SPS measures, with 418 notifications.
  • Of the 56 specific trade concerns (STCs) raised in the SPS Committee, 91% involved G20 members.
• TBT Measures:
  • TBT measures accounted for 45% of all notifications since 1995.
  • 35 out of 44 STCs in the TBT Committee were related to G20 economies.
  • TBT measures covered a wide range of products, including medicines, PPE, food, and medical equipment.

Trade Concerns and Policy Discussions

• Cross-Cutting Issues:
  • Many trade concerns raised in WTO bodies involved G20 measures, with some concerns persisting across multiple WTO committees.
• Agriculture Committee (CoA):
  • 75% of questions raised in the CoA related to G20 policies.
  • There were no notifications on export restrictions or prohibitions on agricultural products related to the pandemic.
• Intellectual Property (IP) Policy:
  • G20 economies continued to adjust their domestic IP frameworks to support innovation and access to health technologies.
  • Discussions on a TRIPS waiver for pandemic-related health technologies were ongoing.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Global Cooperation:
  • The report underscores the importance of international cooperation and transparency in trade policy.
• Vaccine Equity:
  • Ensuring equitable vaccine distribution is critical for a sustainable economic recovery.
• Policy Leadership:
  • G20 economies must demonstrate collective leadership to prevent the resurgence of the pandemic and to maintain open markets.
• Future Outlook:
  • The report highlights the need to ensure that trade-restrictive measures introduced during the pandemic are transparent, proportionate, targeted, and temporary.
  • It also notes the importance of strengthening supply chains and diversifying vaccine manufacturing to enhance global resilience.

Annexes Overview

• Annex 1-4: Cover non-COVID-19 related trade measures.
• Annex 5-6: Focus on trade and trade-related measures in response to the pandemic, including goods and services.

Key Findings

• Trade policy restraint by G20 economies has prevented a protectionist spiral.
• Trade-facilitating measures have been rolled back more quickly than trade-restrictive measures.
• Services trade has recovered more slowly than goods trade due to lockdowns and travel restrictions.
• G20 economies remain the most active in SPS and TBT transparency mechanisms.
• Intellectual property policies have been adjusted to support innovation and access to pandemic-related health technologies.