2014年-ECB欧洲央行_Euro_area_balance_of_payments_and_international_investment_position_statistics_-_2013_quality_report_54页_3mb

Summary of Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics - April 2014

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the quality and reliability of the Euro Area balance of payments (b.o.p.) and international investment position (i.i.p.) statistics as of April 2014. It outlines the institutional environment, statistical processes, and the quality of the statistical output, emphasizing the importance of accuracy, consistency, and transparency in data collection and reporting.

Main Points

1. Institutional Environment

• The ECB and Eurostat are responsible for collecting and compiling the Euro Area b.o.p. and i.i.p. statistics.
• The ECB operates under the legal framework defined by the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and the ESCB Statute.
• The ECB has developed a Statistics Quality Framework (SQF) to ensure the integrity and reliability of statistical outputs.
• The ECB and Eurostat have aligned their release and revision calendars since 2003, improving comparability and reducing the reporting burden on Member States.
• The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the ECB and Eurostat defines the division of responsibilities for b.o.p./i.i.p. statistics.
• The Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and its updated version SDDS Plus are followed by all Euro Area countries, enhancing transparency and data accessibility.

2. Statistical Processes

• Methodological Soundness: The ECB follows the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM5) for compiling b.o.p. statistics and is transitioning to BPM6 by 2014.
• Cost-Effectiveness and Reporting Burden: The ECB has introduced centralised securities databases (CSDB) and security-by-security data collection to improve flexibility without increasing the burden on respondents.
• FDI Network: A network for foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics has been established to improve data quality and reduce inconsistencies between Member States.
• Implementation of BPM6: The ECB has mandated the adoption of BPM6 standards for the Euro Area b.o.p. and i.i.p. by late 2014. The new requirements include more detailed breakdowns by institutional sector and instrument, as well as enhanced data on portfolio investment positions by remaining maturity.

3. Quality of Statistical Output

• Relevance: The statistics are essential for supporting the ECB's monetary policy and other tasks of the Eurosystem and ESCB.
• Accuracy and Reliability (Stability):
  • Directional Reliability: The first assessment of the monthly current account showed directional reliability above 90%, while the reliability for direct investment in the Euro Area deteriorated significantly to 49%.
  • Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): The MAPE for services and income credits has stopped its deterioration trend, indicating improved reliability in these areas.
  • Root Mean Square Relative Error (RMSRE): This indicator highlights an increased bias component in the revisions of net services and net income, suggesting that estimates for these categories are less stable.
• Consistency and Comparability:
  • The ECB regularly checks for discrepancies between b.o.p./i.i.p. data and other data collections such as euro area accounts, monetary statistics, and foreign trade statistics.
  • The ECB compares data with its main counterparts (UK, US, Japan) to ensure consistency.
• Timeliness and Accessibility:
  • The ECB ensures the timeliness of statistical outputs by following a predetermined revision schedule.
  • The ECB publishes its revision practices and provides accessibility and clarity through its website and reports.

Key Information

• Revisions in Net Euro Area i.i.p. at End-2012:
  • Increased from €1,146 billion to €1,263 billion (0.6% of the average stock of assets and liabilities).
  • Portfolio investment was revised upwards by €104 billion, while direct investment was revised upwards by €43 billion and other investment downwards by €39 billion.
• Revisions in Net Euro Area i.i.p. at End-2011:
  • Increased by €319 billion from €1,136 billion to €1,455 billion (1.7% of the average stock).
  • The increase was mainly due to upward revisions of other investment (€275 billion) and combined direct and portfolio investment (€44 billion).
• Net Errors and Omissions:
  • The size of 12-month cumulated net errors and omissions has remained stable since 2009, thanks to efforts by data compilers and the ECB.
• Coverage and Methodological Improvements:
  • The under-coverage of SPEs (Special Purpose Entities) in Cyprus and Malta has been addressed, though progress has not fully met expectations.
  • France introduced a new methodology for calculating portfolio investment income and a new survey for foreign financial assets and liabilities, leading to revisions back to 2010.
  • The Luxembourg Central Bank introduced a new survey on companies active in the financing of international groups, leading to significant revisions in investment income gross transactions from 2011 onwards.
• Future Developments:
  • The next quality report (2015) may see significant structural and content changes due to the adoption of BPM6 standards.
  • The ECB is working on coordinating revision practices between balance of payments and national accounts domains as part of the BPM6 implementation.

Conclusion

The Euro Area balance of payments and international investment position statistics are subject to continuous improvement and refinement, driven by the need for accuracy, consistency, and transparency. The ECB plays a central role in ensuring the quality of these statistics through methodological updates, coordination with national authorities, and adherence to international standards such as BPM6 and SDDS. The ongoing efforts to enhance data quality and reduce reporting burdens are crucial for maintaining the integrity and reliability of the Euro Area's financial statistics.