20160118-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_16页_898kb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 18 January 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of regional market insights and stock recommendations for the week of Monday, 18 January 2016, covering Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes company updates, sector analysis, key financial metrics, and investment recommendations, focusing on performance, valuation, and future outlook.

Main Points by Region

Hong Kong

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (3699 HK):
- Downgraded from BUY to HOLD due to reduced contracted sales and transition to an asset-light model.
- Target price set at HK$43.67, with an upside of +13.7% from current price (HK$38.40).
- Missed 2015 sales target and set a lower 2016 target, indicating uncertainty in revenue growth.
- Reduced land acquisitions in 2016 as the company shifts focus away from residential development.
- Domestic bond issuance at 3.2% lowers finance costs and improves EPS by 0.7% in 2015, 0.6% in 2016, and 0.5% in 2017.

Indonesia

Banking Sector:
- Significant loan growth is expected to take 3-4 quarters to materialize after the first BI rate cut.
- Time deposit rates follow BI rate cuts on a 1:1 basis in the short term, with potential for further decreases in the medium term.
- Banks are advised to focus on BMRI and BBNI due to their strong valuations and exposure to government infrastructure projects.
- BMRI is highlighted as a top pick due to its superior deposit franchise, better liquidity, and potential for reinvestment of bond proceeds.
- BBRI is not recommended as it may face increased operational expenses and credit risks due to large KUR budget allocation.

Malaysia

Consumer Sector:
- Soft consumer spending is expected to persist through 1H16, but the sector offers shelter during market pullbacks.
- Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Recommend Buy Carlsberg and consider small-cap Johore Tin for growth potential.

Singapore

Singapore Airlines (SIA SP/BUY/S$11.04/Target: S$14.00):
- Improved passenger loads across SIA and its subsidiaries.
- Strong performance in 2015, with a 30.7% increase in rental income and 22.5% growth in hotel income.
- The company opened 10 new hotels with 2,796 guest rooms in 2015.

Thailand

PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt47.50/Target: Bt56.00):
- Recommended to buy due to cheap valuation.
- Downstream players are preferred over PTTEP.
- The company's performance is influenced by oil prices and global demand.

Key Indices

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	15988.1	(2.4)	(2.2)	(6.7)	(8.2)
S&P 500	1880.3	(2.2)	(2.2)	(6.2)	(8.0)
FTSE 100	5804.1	(1.9)	(1.8)	(4.1)	(7.0)
AS30	4948.5	(0.3)	(2.0)	(4.0)	(7.4)
CSI 300	3118.7	(3.2)	(7.2)	(17.2)	(16.4)
FSSTI	2630.8	(0.5)	(4.4)	(7.8)	(8.7)
HSCEI	8236.3	(2.6)	(6.9)	(14.5)	(14.7)
HSI	19520.8	(1.5)	(4.6)	(10.3)	(10.9)
JCI	4524.0	0.2	(0.5)	1.2	(1.5)
KLCI	1628.6	(0.3)	(1.8)	(0.9)	(3.8)
KOSPI	1878.9	(1.1)	(2.0)	(4.9)	(4.2)
Nikkei 225	17147.1	(0.5)	(3.5)	(9.7)	(9.9)
SET	1245.9	(1.4)	0.1	(3.0)	(3.3)
TWSE	7762.0	0.2	(1.7)	(6.0)	(6.9)
BDI	373	(2.6)	(13.1)	(21.8)	(22.0)
CPO (RM/mt)	2239	(0.3)	0.4	3.0	1.8
Brent Crude (US$/bbl)	29	(6.3)	(13.7)	(24.7)	(22.4)

Top Picks

BUY

Beijing Capital (694 HK): Target price HK$11.40, Potential upside 55.3%
ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$7.60, Potential upside 87.7%
Bank BJB (BJBR IJ): Target price 1,140.00, Potential upside 33.3%
DiGi.Com (DIGI MK): Target price S$5.95, Potential upside 15.1%
Maybank (MAY MK): Target price S$10.00, Potential upside 20.2%
City Developments (CIT SP): Target price S$10.86, Potential upside 49.0%
DBS (DBS SP): Target price S$22.34, Potential upside 52.6%
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB): Target price Bt192.00, Potential upside 24.7%
PTT (PTT TB): Target price Bt340.00, Potential upside 65.0%

SELL

SIA Engineering (SIE SP): Target price Bt3.30, Potential downside 8.1%
UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price Bt7.00, Potential downside 4.0%
Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP): Target price Bt1.05, Potential downside 24.2%

Key Assumptions

Region	GDP (yoy) 2014	GDP (yoy) 2015F	GDP (yoy) 2016F
US	2.4	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone	0.9	1.5	1.7
Japan	-0.1	0.5	1.0
Singapore	2.9	2.0	2.7
Malaysia	6.0	4.9	4.8
Thailand	0.9	2.7	3.2
Indonesia	5.0	4.8	5.4
Hong Kong	2.5	1.8	1.5
China	7.3	6.5	6.7

Indicator	2015	2016F	2017F
Brent (US$/bbl)	53.60	54	62
CPO (RM/mt)	2,168	2,500	2,600

Corporate Events

Greater China Strategy and Energy Sector Analyst Presentation:
- Dates: 18–28 January 2016 in various locations (London, Milan, Frankfurt, Helsinki, Vienna, Dublin)
Keppel REIT Luncheon:
- 19 January 2016, Singapore
UOB Luncheon:
- 20 January 2016, Singapore
Futugech Bhd Luncheon:
- 22 January 2016, Kuala Lumpur
WCT Holdings Roadshow:
- 26 January 2016, Singapore
Singapore Airlines Luncheon:
- 5 February 2016, Singapore
Indonesian Strategy Analyst Presentation:
- 11–13 March 2016, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur

Key Financials (Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties)

Metric	2013	2014	2015F	2016F	2017F
Net turnover (Rmbm)	86,774	107,871	122,967	130,728	148,232
EBITDA (Rmbm)	48,452	48,932	40,181	41,840	47,839
Net profit (Rmbm)	24,581	24,839	17,805	21,642	24,945
EPS (Fen)	347.9	327.5	393.3	478.1	551.0

Valuation Metrics

Metric	2015F	2016F	2017F
PE (x)	14.824	17,805	21,642
P/B (x)	1.1	1.0	0.9
EV/EBITDA (x)	6.4	6.3	7.7
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%)	57.5	72.7	68.5
Interest cover (x)	5.9	4.4	6.8
ROE (%)	19.0	11.2	12.5

Earnings Impact

Domestic Bond Issuance Impact on EPS:
- 2015F: +0.7%
- 2016F: +0.6%
- 2017F: +0.5%
Earnings Revision:
- 2015F: EPS 393.3 (down 4.4%)
- 2016F: EPS 478.1 (down 6.2%)
- 2017F: EPS 551.0 (down 6.1%)

Summary of Investment Strategy

Downgrade to HOLD for Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties due to a decline in contracted sales and transition risks.
BUY recommendations for several banks in Indonesia, including BMRI, BBNI, and BJBR, due to their valuations and potential for earnings recovery.
BUY for Singapore Airlines due to improved passenger loads and strong rental and hotel income.
BUY for PTT in Thailand due to its low valuation, despite preference for downstream players.
Malaysia continues to recommend MARKET WEIGHT for the consumer sector, with specific BUY recommendations for Carlsberg.
Downgrade is based on the expected slower sales progress and higher risk from the asset-light transition.
Risk/return is emphasized for the top picks, with focus on valuations and earnings potential.