2013年-世界发展银行全球_Burundi_Public_Expenditure_Review___Strengthening_Fiscal_Resilience_to_Promote_Government_Effectiveness_203页_4mb

Burundi Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This report, Burundi Public Expenditure Review (Report No: ACS5393), published by the World Bank in December 2013, evaluates the country's fiscal and public expenditure management systems. It is part of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network (PREM) and the Great Lakes Unit (AFTP5) initiative, with support from the Royal Embassy of the Netherlands. The main goal is to assist the Burundi government in escaping the fragility trap by enhancing fiscal resilience and improving government effectiveness.

Main Objectives

• Strengthen fiscal resilience to mitigate the impact of future shocks.
• Improve public expenditure management (PEM) to enhance government effectiveness.
• Promote sustainable development by aligning fiscal policies with long-term economic goals.

Key Findings

1. Economic and Fiscal Developments

• GDP Growth: Burundi has shown modest growth, below regional and post-conflict peers, with a population growth rate of around 3% and a medium-term growth expectation of 5%.
• Balance of Payments: Persistent deficits and reliance on external financing have been a challenge.
• Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation has been a concern, influenced by imported food and fuel prices, and monetary policy has struggled to contain it.
• Fiscal Policy: The country has relied heavily on foreign aid and budget support, which are volatile and subject to delays.

2. Drivers of Fragility

• High Dependency on Foreign Aid: Burundi is among the most aid-dependent countries in the world, which makes its fiscal system vulnerable to external shocks.
• Volatility of Budget Support: Budget support is often delayed, creating liquidity challenges.
• Growing Stock of Arrears: Delays in aid disbursement have led to an accumulation of arrears.
• Critical Level of Reserves: Reserves are insufficient to cover import needs, increasing financial risk.

3. Fiscal Sustainability Analysis

• Narrow Fiscal Space: The fiscal space is limited due to high public expenditures, primarily on salaries and transfers.
• Need for Domestic Revenue Mobilization: To increase fiscal space, the government should focus on generating more domestic revenue.
• Donor Role: Donors play a critical role in supporting public expenditure management, but their late transfers can cause additional stress.
• Data Quality Issues: There are major inconsistencies between the Treasury database and SIGEFI data, hindering effective monitoring and analysis.
• Aid Management: Aid is not well-integrated into the budget execution process, leading to inefficiencies and lack of transparency.
• Recommendations: Realistic and pragmatic solutions are advised to improve public administration performance while keeping the wage bill under control.

4. Public Expenditure Analysis

• Domestic Financing: Public expenditures are primarily composed of recurrent and capital spending, with a focus on salaries.
• External Financing: Aid flows are significant but fragmented, with limited coordination and transparency.
• Pro-poor Spending: A portion of the budget is allocated to pro-poor programs, but their execution and impact are inconsistent.
• MTEF Challenges: The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) lacks coherence, and there are discrepancies between estimated and approved budgets.
• Wage Bill Issues: The wage bill is a major component of public spending, and its structure is complex and inequitable.

Key Recommendations

• Enhance fiscal space by increasing domestic revenue and reducing reliance on volatile aid.
• Improve data quality and coherence between different financial databases.
• Integrate aid management into the budget execution process to ensure transparency and efficiency.
• Implement realistic wage bill reforms that align with regional standards and improve public service delivery.
• Strengthen public financial management (PFM) through better coordination, monitoring, and reporting mechanisms.
• Promote accountability in the use of public funds, especially in pro-poor programs.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of improving fiscal resilience and public expenditure management to ensure sustainable development and political stability in Burundi. While the country has made progress in post-conflict recovery, its economic and fiscal structures remain fragile. The recommendations aim to support the government in building a more resilient and effective public administration system, with a focus on transparency, accountability, and the rationalization of public spending.

Structure and Approach

• The review is based on a comprehensive analysis of fiscal data, policy frameworks, and stakeholder consultations.
• It uses a multi-sectoral approach to evaluate the impact of public spending on economic growth and poverty reduction.
• A scenario analysis is conducted to assess the fiscal implications of different policy reforms, including wage bill adjustments and aid management improvements.

Supporting Materials

• Annexes: Include detailed data, technical working group terms of reference, regression results, and background information on various aspects of public expenditure and fiscal sustainability.
• Boxes: Provide in-depth analyses and case studies on specific issues such as aid coordination, wage bill management, and MTEF implementation.

Final Remarks

The report underscores the need for a coordinated and strategic approach to fiscal and public expenditure management. It calls for the government to work closely with donors and international partners to ensure timely and transparent aid flows, and to implement reforms that align with regional best practices and Burundi’s development goals.