2002年-世界发展银行全球_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_-_From_Aid_Dependency_to_Fiscal_Self-Reliance___A_Public_Expenditure_and_Institutional_Review_180页_15mb

Summary of Report No.24297-BIH: Bosnia and Herzegovina - From Aid Dependency to Fiscal Self-Reliance

Core Content

This report, titled From Aid Dependency to Fiscal Self-Reliance: A Public Expenditure and Institutional Review of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), examines the country's transition from a post-war economy heavily reliant on donor aid to a more self-reliant fiscal system. It analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal framework, public sector expenditure patterns, fiscal decentralization, and institutional reforms necessary to achieve sustainable development and economic stability.

Main Findings

• Governance Structure: BiH has a highly decentralized governance system established by the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA), which has led to fragmentation. This structure is evolving, with efforts to create a more integrated and efficient system.

• Economic and Fiscal Context:

  • BiH has experienced macroeconomic stability and impressive post-war economic recovery, driven by donor assistance and sound policies.
  • Real growth rates were initially very high (86% in 1996, 40% in 1997), but have since slowed to about 6% per annum during 2000-01 and 5% in 2002.
  • The economy remains overly dependent on aid, with public sector dominance and inefficiency in public spending.
  • Public expenditures are too high and not aligned with long-term fiscal sustainability, with over 60% of the non-reconstruction budget allocated to wages and transfers by 2000.

• Fiscal Sustainability:

  • The current fiscal deficit is not sustainable, and the reliance on external financing is diminishing.
  • BiH's tax burden is among the highest in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and tax collection remains weak, with high levels of evasion and fraud.
  • The consolidation of general government tax revenues to 38% of GDP in 2000 is still below the predicted sustainable level of 46% of GDP.

• Fiscal Decentralization:

  • The division of fiscal responsibilities between central, entity, and sub-entity levels is complex and leads to overlapping functions and inefficiencies.
  • Vertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances are significant, with disparities in revenue capacity and expenditure across cantons and municipalities.
  • There is a need for better coordination and rationalization of fiscal policies at all levels.

• Public Expenditure Composition:

  • The economic composition of public spending is dominated by wages and salaries, which account for a large portion of total expenditure.
  • Functional spending includes defense, public order, and safety, which remain high due to lingering military and security needs.
  • Pension and social welfare expenditures are significant and have increased due to the transition from a war economy to a market economy.

• Social Services:

  • Social welfare and child protection programs are underfunded and inefficient, with high administrative costs.
  • Education and health sectors face challenges in quality, resource allocation, and institutional capacity.
  • Education spending per student is low compared to CEE countries, and the system is fragmented.
  • Health care delivery is hampered by inefficiencies, low quality, and high informal payments.

• Institutional Challenges:

  • The budget planning and execution process is weak, with poor coordination between the State and Entity levels.
  • The implementation of the Treasury General Ledger (TGL) system is still in progress, and financial discipline and transparency remain issues.
  • Public procurement is inefficient, with high risks of corruption and poor compliance.

• Reform Priorities:

  • There is a need for a strategic and comprehensive fiscal adjustment plan that addresses both public and private sector roles.
  • Strengthening the tax system, improving tax collection, and reducing the tax burden are essential for long-term fiscal sustainability.
  • Enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending, particularly in social services, is crucial for development.
  • Improving fiscal coordination and institutional capacity across all levels of government is necessary to reduce fragmentation and enhance governance.

Key Recommendations

• Strengthen Fiscal Coordination: Improve vertical and horizontal coordination between the central government and entities to ensure a balanced and efficient fiscal system.

• Rationalize Public Expenditures: Focus on reducing administrative costs and improving the efficiency of public spending, especially in the social sectors.

• Enhance Tax System: Implement reforms to simplify tax structures, rationalize tax rates, and improve tax collection and compliance.

• Promote Fiscal Discipline: Establish a more robust and transparent budget execution system, including the full implementation of the Treasury General Ledger system.

• Address Fiscal Imbalances: Implement mechanisms to reduce disparities in revenue and expenditure across cantons and municipalities.

• Support Private Sector Development: Encourage a vibrant and outward-oriented private sector to reduce reliance on aid and enhance economic growth.

• Improve Social Services: Allocate more resources to education and health, and enhance the quality and efficiency of service delivery.

• Implement Public Procurement Reforms: Address corruption and inefficiencies in procurement to ensure better value for money.

Conclusion

BiH's transition from aid dependency to fiscal self-reliance is a complex and ongoing process. While the country has made progress in macroeconomic stability and economic recovery, it still faces significant challenges in fiscal sustainability, public spending efficiency, and institutional capacity. Strategic reforms in taxation, public expenditure management, and fiscal decentralization are essential to ensure long-term economic development and political stability.