20211014-IRENA-Renewable_Energy_in_Hybrid_Mini-Grids_and_Isolated_Grids_Economic_Benefits_and_Business_Cases_92页_7mb

Renewable Energy in Hybrid Mini-grids and Isolated Grids: Economic Benefits and Business Cases
Sponsored by Frankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate and Sustainable Energy Finance

This report analyzes hybrid grids combining solar PV with diesel generation to assess their economic and financial viability. Using seven case studies from countries like Kenya, Indonesia, and others, the study demonstrates significant cost savings and reduced carbon emissions under specific conditions.

Key Findings:

1. Cost Reduction: Hybridization reduced average generation costs by 12–16% compared to diesel-only systems under mid-case diesel price scenarios.
2. Solar and Diesel Prices: Highest savings occurred at sites like Nusa Penida (mid-sized grid, high diesel prices, high radiation), though small grids (e.g., Hola) showed inconsistent savings.
3. Financing Costs: Public sector financing assumptions (e.g., 5% discount rate) favored hybridization more than private sector terms (often 8–9%, including risk).
4. Demand Growth: Even over a 20-year horizon, demand growth further enhanced the economic case for hybridization.

Recommendations:

• Stakeholders should prioritize larger sites for hybridization.
• Public sector funding or grants can bridge the gap for private sector financing.
• Policymakers need robust regulatory frameworks to incentivize hybrid systems (e.g., FiTs).
• Detailed site-specific analyses are essential before implementation.

Conclusion: Hybrid renewable systems offer significant cost savings and emission reductions, making them a viable solution for isolated grids. However, risks include financing constraints and local demand patterns. Further investment and policy support are critical for scaling these systems globally.