20151231-IRENA-Renewable_Energy_Benefits_Measuring_the_Economics_92页_7mb

RENEWABLE ENERGY BENEFITS: MEASURING THE ECONOMICS

INTRODUCTION
This report provides the first global quantification of the macroeconomic impacts of doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix by 2030. It demonstrates that this transition could increase global GDP by 0.6%-1.1% (equivalent to US$706 billion to US$1.3 trillion), improve global welfare by 2.7%-3.7%, and create over 24 million jobs. The analysis uses a macro-econometric model and considers three scenarios: a business-as-usual case, a case where renewables double by 2030, and a case emphasizing electrification.

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

• GDP Growth: Doubling renewables increases global GDP by 0.6% in the business-as-usual scenario and up to 1.1% in the electrification scenario. Benefits vary by country, with oil exporters potentially facing GDP declines due to reduced fossil fuel exports.
• Welfare Improvement: Renewable energy deployment enhances human well-being by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving health (through reduced air pollution), and increasing material productivity, contributing up to 3.7% welfare gains.
• Employment: Global employment in the renewable energy sector could reach 24.4 million by 2030, with significant job creation in manufacturing, installation, and O&M. However, full crowding out of capital (investment displacement) could slightly reduce GDP gains.
• Trade Effects: Transitioning to renewables reduces fossil fuel imports, benefiting importers (e.g., Japan) and altering trade balances. Fossil fuel exporters (e.g., Saudi Arabia) face economic challenges, while renewable equipment exports grow.

METHODOLOGY
The analysis uses the E3ME macro-econometric model, calibrated with data from IRENA’s REmap scenarios. Limitations include crowding out uncertainties, fixed energy mixes, and exogenous assumptions, but the results highlight the substantial benefits of renewable deployment.

WAY FORWARD
Policies should focus on enabling frameworks, including clear targets, supportive regulations, and investment-friendly environments. Strengthening domestic industries and addressing skills gaps can maximize socio-economic benefits. Further research should refine models to account for distributional effects and climate externality valuations.

Renewable energy deployment offers significant economic, social, and environmental co-benefits, making it a crucial component of sustainable development.