世界发展银行-Zimbabwe-Public-Expenditure-Review-with-a-Focus-on-Agriculture_76页_3mb

Summary of Zimbabwe Public Expenditure Review with a Focus on Agriculture

Core Content

This report, a joint effort by the World Bank and the Government of Zimbabwe, presents a comprehensive analysis of public expenditure on agriculture in the country. It is part of a series of Public Expenditure Reviews (PERs) aimed at supporting fiscal management improvements. The focus is on understanding the evolution and impact of agricultural spending, particularly in the context of Zimbabwe's history of land reform and its economic challenges.

Main Views

1. Agriculture's Role in the Economy

Agriculture is a cornerstone of Zimbabwe's economy, with about two-thirds of the population engaged in it. It plays a vital role in poverty reduction and food security, especially through maize production. However, its contribution to GDP has declined from around 20% in the early 2000s to about 10% in recent years.

2. Land Reform and Its Impact

Zimbabwe's land reform can be divided into two phases:

• Land Reform and Resettlement Programme I (LRRP I): 1980-1998, based on a willing buyer-willing seller model.
• Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP): 2000 onwards, marked by more radical and state-led land redistribution.

The FTLRP significantly altered the structure of agriculture, leading to a decline in GDP per capita, reduced government revenue, and weakened macroeconomic stability. The program also led to a loss of monetary policy independence and the eventual dollarization of the economy in 2009.

3. Agricultural Spending Trends

Agricultural spending in Zimbabwe has varied between 5% and 6% of GDP over the years. However, in 2016/17, it surged due to the introduction of the Command Agriculture program, which aimed to reverse the decline in agricultural production. Despite increased spending, the program's value for money is questionable due to factors like drought recovery and crop substitution.

4. Challenges and Consequences

• Structural Issues: Land reform disrupted tenure security, access to credit, and infrastructure, leading to reduced agricultural productivity.
• Fiscal Pressures: The Command Agriculture program led to a significant fiscal outlay, contributing to a large fiscal deficit. The government's ability to collect and spend as a percentage of GDP has dropped to about a third of what it was in 1999.
• Monetary Instability: The reliance on RBZ credit to finance agricultural spending has weakened the fiscal position and increased public debt.

5. Policy Recommendations

• Reduce Command Agriculture Costs: The report suggests reforms to the Special Maize Programme and the price wedge between procurement and sales prices.
• Address Structural Constraints: Improving tenure security, credit access, and infrastructure is critical to increasing agricultural productivity.
• Enhance Fiscal Management: Strengthening fiscal credibility, adopting program-based budgeting (PBB), and improving data quality are essential.
• Foster Private Sector Involvement: Greater private sector participation in risk mitigation is recommended to reduce the burden on public spending.
• Long-term Research Needs: A rigorous value-for-money analysis of Command Agriculture and other support schemes is needed, as well as improved data collection.

Key Information

• Command Agriculture: Introduced in 2016/17, this program involved significant public spending to boost agricultural production and ensure food security.
• Fiscal Deficit: Agricultural spending in 2019 was estimated at 5.4% of GDP, a sharp increase from the 0.5% initially planned.
• Historical Context: The early land reform (LRRP I) improved inclusivity and productivity, but the FTLRP led to economic instability and reduced agricultural output.
• Data and Analysis: The report draws on data up to June 2019 and highlights the importance of integrating donor spending with government systems.
• International Comparisons: Zimbabwe's economic decline post-FTLRP is compared to other major economic restructuring events, such as the dissolution of the Soviet Union, to emphasize the severity of the impact.

Structure and Methodology

• The report uses a program-based budgeting (PBB) approach to categorize and analyze agricultural expenditure.
• It includes a glossary of terms relevant to public expenditure and agricultural policy.
• Figures and tables provide visual and quantitative insights into the evolution of agricultural production, GDP per capita, and fiscal indicators.
• Boxes offer additional insights, such as the inflation tax and lessons from other African countries' agricultural PERs.

Conclusion

Sustainable agricultural spending in Zimbabwe requires both immediate cost reductions and long-term structural reforms. The report emphasizes the need to rebuild macroeconomic resilience, improve fiscal management, and integrate donor support with government systems. While some positive steps have been taken, such as the adoption of the RTGS digital currency, the overall fiscal sustainability remains a concern. The findings are intended to guide future policy decisions and support the government's Transitional Stabilisation Programme (TSP) goals.