2016年-世界发展银行全球_Zimbabwe_Public_Expenditure_Review___Volume_5_Social_Protection_44页_1mb

Summary of the Public Expenditure Review on Social Protection in Zimbabwe (2016)

Core Content

The Public Expenditure Review (PER) on Social Protection in Zimbabwe, Volume 5, evaluates the country's social protection system from 2010 to 2015, focusing on four main pillars: social safety nets (SSNs), social insurance, labor market programs, and social care services. The review aims to inform the Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) on reforms to improve the efficiency, sustainability, and effectiveness of social protection programs.

Main Points

1. Role of Social Protection and Key Risks

• Social protection in Zimbabwe is defined as a set of interventions aimed at reducing social and economic risks, alleviating poverty, and promoting equity and resilience for the poor and vulnerable.
• The Zimbabwe Constitution (Section 30) mandates the state to provide social security and care to those in need.
• Social protection has been part of national development policies since 1980, with a tradition of social safety nets even during colonial times.
• The GoZ has prioritized poverty eradication through the Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation (ZimAsset), which includes social protection as a key pillar.

2. Expenditure Trends

• Social protection expenditure in Zimbabwe reached 4.39% of GDP in 2015, driven largely by social insurance.
• Social safety nets expenditure dropped significantly from an average of 1.9% (2010-2014) to 0.72% in 2015, due to declining development partner support and shifting resources to emergency assistance.
• Civil service pensions account for 67% of social protection spending, benefiting only 1.3% of the population.
• Social safety nets programs have low and unpredictable coverage, reaching only a small share of the poor.
• HSCT (Harmonized Social Cash Transfer System) is an exception, with strict targeting mechanisms and clear eligibility criteria.

3. Challenges and Opportunities

• Financing and Sustainability: Social protection spending is unsustainable, with a heavy reliance on development partner financing. Social insurance expenditure is particularly high due to the public wage bill.
• Coverage and Equity: Most programs do not effectively target the poor, and there is a lack of integrated data and coordination.
• Results and Efficiency: Programs like HSCT have shown positive outcomes in improving incomes, food security, life satisfaction, and agricultural assets, but many programs lack rigorous evaluation.
• Institutional Capacity: Weak targeting mechanisms, fragmented programs, and insufficient monitoring and evaluation systems hinder the effectiveness of social protection.

4. Policy Options

• Consolidate Programs: Authorities should consolidate disparate safety net interventions around a core set of programs, guided by principles such as flexibility and dynamism.
• Scale HSCT: The HSCT could serve as the foundation for Zimbabwe’s basic social safety nets, and funding should be reallocated to expand its reach.
• Improve Equity: Enhance targeting mechanisms to ensure pro-poor strategies, especially for both chronic and transitory needs.
• Reform Pension System: Address the unsustainable nature of the civil service pension system, which is a major component of social protection expenditure.
• Strengthen Accountability: Implement audits, grievance mechanisms, and social accountability measures to improve transparency and public trust.
• Enhance Data and Coordination: Develop an integrated social registry and improve information systems to support better decision-making and program management.

Key Findings

• Social Safety Nets: Zimbabwe has a highly fragmented and donor-dependent system, with poor coordination among implementing agencies.
• Social Insurance: Accounts for 4.39% of GDP in 2015, but is unsustainable due to the public wage bill and other related issues.
• Pensions: The civil service pension system is the largest component of social protection spending, but it fails to reach the majority of the poor.
• HSCT: The only well-targeted and effective program, with strict eligibility criteria and clear targeting mechanisms.
• Poverty Levels: In 2011-12, 72.3% of the population was poor, and 22.5% were extremely poor, with the rural population being more vulnerable.
• Food Insecurity: A major challenge, with 16% of the population facing insufficient means to meet minimum food needs in 2015.
• HIV/AIDS Impact: Affects one million children who have become orphans due to the epidemic.
• Program Effectiveness: Most programs lack rigorous evaluation and transparency, leading to inefficiencies and duplication.

Conclusion

Zimbabwe's social protection system has historically been broad and varied, but it has not evolved to meet current challenges. The system is unsustainable, inequitable, and inefficient, with a heavy reliance on donor financing and fragmented implementation. The HSCT is a promising model for improving targeting and effectiveness, and should be scaled up. The review recommends consolidation, better targeting, improved accountability, and enhanced institutional capacity to build a more sustainable and equitable social protection system.

Key Programs and Initiatives

References and Partners

• Development Partners: DFID, USAID, UNICEF, FAO, WFP, CARE International, World Vision.
• Government Agencies: Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare (MPSLSW), Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED), Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC), Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education (MoPSE), and others.
• Institutions: World Bank, ZIMSTAT, ZIMRA, NSSA, ZIMASSET.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Total Program Expenditure as % GDP by Sub-sector FY2010-2015.

• Figure 2: Actual vs. Budgeted Social Protection Expenditure FY2010-2015.

• Figure 3: Expenditure on Different Types of Social Safety Nets Interventions.

• Figure 4: Expenditure Trends of Main Social Safety Nets Interventions.

• Figure 5: Spending on Social Safety Nets and Humanitarian Interventions.

• Figure 6: Overall Sources of Financing for Social Protection in Zimbabwe.

• Figure 7: Overall Sources of Financing for Social Safety Nets in Zimbabwe.

• Figure 8: Social Safety Net Expenditure % GDP Select Sub-Saharan African Countries.

• Figure 9: Civil Service Pension Expenditure % GDP Select Sub-Saharan African Countries.

• Figure 10: Benefits Incidence by Quintile.

• Table 1: Inventory of Zimbabwe's Core Social Protection Programs (2010-2015).

• Table 2: Actual Expenditure on Various Social Safety Nets Programs.

• Table 3: Trends in Expenditure on Various Social Safety Nets Programs.

• Table 4: Trends in Expenditure on Various Social Insurance Programs.

• Table 5: Trends in Expenditure on Various Social Care Services Programs.

• Table 6: Trends in the Numbers of Beneficiaries of Social Safety Nets Programs.

• Table 7: Coverage of Main Safety Nets Programs as a Share of Overall and Extreme Poverty.

Box Highlights

• Box 1: The Rise of Social Safety Nets in Africa highlights the global trend toward cash-based transfers, with 64 countries implementing CCTs and 40 countries implementing UCTs by 2014.
• Box 2: The Zimbabwe Human Rights Commission Report on Food Aid Distribution (2016) underscores issues of bias and inefficiency in food aid distribution, emphasizing the need for improved transparency and accountability.

Final Notes

• The report was finalized in October 2016 and updated with macroeconomic indicators in March 2017.
• It was prepared jointly by the Zimbabwe Ministry of Public Services, Labour and Social Welfare (MPSLSW) and the World Bank.
• The review serves as a basis for reform, aiming to enhance the sustainability and effectiveness of social protection in Zimbabwe.