20150715-Maybank_KERPL-Low_base_effect_11页_814kb
报告摘要
Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) Summary
Core Information
- Share Price: THB311.00
- Target Price: THB360.00 (+16%)
- Market Capitalization (USD): 13.1B
- Average Daily Trade Value (USD): 30M
- Analyst Recommendation: BUY (Unchanged)
- Analyst Coverage: 69% recommend BUY, 17% HOLD, 14% SELL
- Contact: Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393, sittichai.d@maybank-ke.co.th
Key Financial Highlights (3QFY15 & 9MFY15)
Traffic Recovery
- Aircraft movements: Increased by 19% YoY, but dropped 1% QoQ
- Passenger traffic: Rose by 29% YoY, but declined 9% QoQ
- International passenger traffic growth: Faster than domestic (31% vs 26%) due to political stability and travel confidence recovery
- Tourist arrivals (3QFY15): Increased by 29% YoY to 6.75m, contributing 24% to full-year forecast (vs 22% in previous 10 years)
- Tourist arrivals (1H15): Reached 51% of FY15 forecast at 28.5m
Earnings Performance
- Forecasted Net Profit (3QFY15F): THB3,751m, up 51% YoY
- Forecasted Recurring Profit (3QFY15F): THB3,813m, up 49% YoY
- Revenue Growth (3QFY15F): 21% YoY
- EBITDA Growth (3QFY15F): 29% YoY
- EBITDA Margin: Expanded 400bps to 64.7%
- Net Profit Margin: 35.6% in 3QFY15F, up 7.2% YoY
- 9MFY15 Net Profit: THB12,555m, up 26% YoY
- 9MFY15 Recurring Profit: THB12,405m, up 24% YoY
Valuation and Performance
Valuation Metrics
- Core P/E (FY15F): 27.6x
- Core P/E (FY16F): 23.4x
- P/BV (FY15F): 4.1x
- P/BV (FY16F): 3.6x
- EV/EBITDA (FY15F): 18.9x
- EV/EBITDA (FY16F): 15.9x
- AOT trades at 7% discount to FY16F PER compared to global peers
- PEG (FY16F): 1.1x, lower than global peers (1.9x)
Share Price Performance
- YTD (Year-to-Date): +10%
- MTD (Month-to-Date): +3%
- 1Mth: 0.3%
- 3Mth: 6.1%
- 12Mth: 56.7%
- Relative to index (12Mth): +61.0%
Earnings and Growth Outlook
Earnings Growth
- 3QFY15: Net profit up 51% YoY, recurring profit up 49% YoY
- 9MFY15: Net profit up 26% YoY, recurring profit up 24% YoY
- Full-Year Forecast (FY15): Net profit will reach 24% in 3QFY15 and 78% in 9MFY15
- 4QFY15 & 1QFY16: Expected to maintain strong traffic growth (28% / 30% YoY)
- Net profit in 4QFY15: Projected to jump 77% YoY but flat QoQ
Growth Projections (FY15E - FY17E)
| Metric | FY13A | FY14A | FY15E | FY16E | FY17E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (THB m) | 36,810.4 | 37,585.5 | 43,082.9 | 50,403.9 | 60,134.0 |
| EBITDA (THB m) | 20,234.1 | 21,157.4 | 25,309.9 | 29,918.7 | 36,318.0 |
| Core Net Profit (THB m) | 16,347.3 | 12,220.4 | 16,125.4 | 18,963.9 | 23,848.3 |
Analyst View and Investment Outlook
- Market Reaction: Positive due to strong traffic recovery and improved earnings
- Valuation: Price multiples are high, but AOT trades at a discount to global peers
- Dividend Yield: Expected to rise from 1.5% to 2.1% by FY17E
- Net Dividend Yield: 1.5% in FY15E, 1.7% in FY16E
- ROAE (Return on Average Equity): 16.4% in FY15E, 18.2% in FY16E
- ROAA (Return on Average Assets): 11.1% in FY15E, 12.5% in FY16E
- Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield: 3.9% in FY15E, 0.9% in FY16E
- Reiterate BUY: With 16% upside potential based on DCF model and strong growth momentum
Peer Comparison
| Metric | AOT (FY15F) | AOT (FY16F) | Regional Peers | Global Peers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (x) | 27.4 | 23.3 | 34.4 | 30.1 |
| P/BV (x) | 4.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 18.9 | 15.9 | 17.1 | 15.2 |
| Net Dividend Yield (%) | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| ROE (%) | 15.7 | 16.4 | 10.0 | 10.7 |
Conclusion
- Traffic Recovery: Strong rebound in both international and domestic traffic, driven by political stability and improved tourist confidence
- Earnings Growth: Significant YoY growth in net and recurring profit, with continued momentum in 4QFY15 and 1QFY16
- Valuation: AOT is trading at a premium to peers but remains attractive relative to global airport peers
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with 16% upside potential, supported by strong earnings and traffic growth
- Outlook: Positive for the remainder of FY15 and FY16, with potential for continued growth and improved fundamentals
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