2018年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_NATO_Enlargement_29页_69kb

NATO Enlargement Summary

Core Content

This working paper from the European Security Forum (ESF) No. 3, published in July 2001, explores the implications of NATO enlargement from the perspectives of the United States, Europe, and Russia. It discusses the political, strategic, and security ramifications of expanding NATO membership, particularly with regard to the Baltic states, and considers the future direction of NATO and its relationship with Russia.

Main Points

1. NATO Enlargement and European Stability

• European Objective: The primary goal of enlargement is to strengthen the liberal democratic base of Europe.
• Baltic States: The inclusion of the Baltic states is seen as essential for this objective.
• Russia's Independence: Regardless of NATO's actions, Russia is expected to pursue its own path, which may include a more assertive stance towards NATO expansion.

2. Russia's Perspective

• Public Opinion: Russian public opinion is generally hostile to NATO enlargement, especially in the Baltic region.
• Kosovo Air War: This event marked a turning point in the hardening of Russian opposition to NATO.
• Cooperative Engagement: Despite the negative sentiment, there is potential for practical cooperation in areas such as maritime security, missile defense, and crisis management.

3. Strategic and Political Implications

• NATO's Nature: Concerns were raised about the effectiveness and decision-making capacity of a larger NATO.
• Article V: The inclusion of new members may complicate NATO's Article V commitments, particularly in the context of potential threats from China or Russia.
• EU-NATO Coordination: There is a call for closer coordination between the EU and NATO enlargement processes to avoid duplication and ensure consistency in policy.

4. Enlargement and the Atlantic Partnership

• North American-European Partnership: Maintaining this partnership is vital for Europe's security.
• US Commitment: Enlargement may strain the US commitment to NATO, especially if it is perceived as an "entangling alliance."
• Military Dependency: Europe remains dependent on the US for military capabilities and deterrence.

5. Grand Strategy Objectives

The paper outlines five key strategic objectives for European security:

1. Preserve the North American-European Partnership
2. Prevent a New Division of Europe with a Hostile Russia
3. Support and Enlarge Europe's Stable Liberal Base
4. Manage Violent Instability Affecting Europe
5. Maintain Insurance Against Revived Military Threats

Key Information

• NATO's Role: NATO is considered essential for crisis management, peacekeeping, and deterrence, especially against potential threats from Russia or rogue states.
• Security Implications: Enlargement could lead to a more militarized and hostile Russian stance, as well as a potential "Berlin vulnerability" scenario.
• Economic and Political Factors: Russia's economic dependence on the West limits its ability to respond aggressively to NATO expansion.
• EU and NATO Interaction: The EU lacks the military capacity to support enlargement, making NATO the key institution for security guarantees.
• Future Considerations: The paper suggests that enlargement is politically inevitable, but its form must be carefully managed to avoid further straining relations with Russia and to maintain NATO's effectiveness.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while NATO enlargement is politically unavoidable, it must be approached with caution and strategic foresight. The focus should be on maintaining NATO's coherence, enhancing its legitimacy, and ensuring that it remains a credible and effective alliance. It also emphasizes the need for improved cooperation between Russia and NATO, even as the two continue to diverge in their strategic outlooks. The key challenge lies in balancing the expansion of NATO with the preservation of its core functions and the stability of the broader European security architecture.