20140212-Maybank_KERPL-Cordlife_Group__CLGL_SP_Plenty_to_look_forward_to_11页_612kb

报告摘要

Share Price: SGD1.19
Market Cap (USD): 251M
Target Price (TP): SGD1.42 (+21%)
Sector: Healthcare
Rating: BUY (Unchanged)
Location: Singapore
ADTV (USD): 0.7M
Major Shareholders:
- SG Investments Pte Ltd. – 11%
- Bonvests Holdings Ltd. – 10%
- China Cord Blood Corp. – 9%
- Fidelity – 9%

Cordlife's 1HFY6/14 revenue grew by 31% YoY to SGD12.1m, while reported earnings fell by 25% YoY to SGD4.2m.
Core earnings were SGD2.1m, representing 21% of the full-year forecast (1Q: 19%).
1H core earnings accounted for 40% of the full-year forecast, aligning with historical trends.
The decline in core earnings was due to temporary disruptions in the Philippines and Indonesia.

The second half of the financial year is expected to be stronger, driven by 2014 being the Year of the Horse, a favorable time for births in China.
Key catalysts:
1. Sustained turnaround in Hong Kong operations due to restructuring and market share gain.
2. New product launches across its expanded Asian platform, including:
  - Cord tissue storage in Singapore (Aug 2013)
  - Cord tissue in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China
  - Metascreen in Hong Kong and Singapore
Core EPS growth is expected to be 25.9% for FY14E and 24.5% for FY15E.

The valuation base year is rolled over to FY6/15E.
Valuation methodology is switched from P/E to SOTP (Sum of the Parts) to reflect:
1. Reclassification of CCBC from associate to investment.
2. Increased net cash (SGD40m) following a placement in Oct 2013.
SOTP TP: SGD1.42
Core P/E (FY6/15E): 25x
FY6/15E EPS: SGD0.045
Target price for core business: SGD1.13
CCBC market value per share: SGD0.14
End-FY14E net cash per share: SGD0.15

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue	30.3	34.7	56.0	65.8	82.3
EBITDA	8.1	8.1	12.1	14.2	17.5
Core Net Profit	6.7	6.7	9.7	12.1	15.1
Core EPS (cts)	2.9	2.9	3.6	4.5	5.7
Core EPS Growth (%)	-48.5	-0.1	25.9	24.5	24.8
Net DPS (cts)	3.8	2.0	2.0	2.2	2.2
Core P/E (x)	41.1	41.1	32.7	26.3	21.0
P/BV (x)	3.9	3.6	2.8	2.7	2.5
Net Dividend Yield (%)	3.2	1.7	1.7	1.9	1.9
ROAE (%)	15.8	14.1	10.2	10.4	12.2
ROAA (%)	12.2	10.0	7.0	7.5	8.6
EV/EBITDA (x)	42.6	41.3	30.7	26.6	22.0
Net Debt/Equity (%)	Net cash (all years)

Cord tissue service in China via a joint venture with China Cord Blood Corp (CCBC) in regions like Beijing, Guangzhou, Zhejiang, and Shandong.
Potential annual royalty stream:
- CCBC's revenue: SGD55.2m for 6M 2014
- Annualised revenue: SGD110.4m
- First-time processing fee: 70% of CCBC's revenue
- Estimated take-up rate: 20%
- Royalty rate: 7%
- Estimated royalties: SGD1.1m pa
Joint venture with Golden Meditech for more new products in China, targeting 1,624 Primary Grade hospitals.
Medium-term catalysts:
1. Infant screening kit
2. Stem cell therapeutic cream
3. Ovarian cancer testing kit
These products are expected to enhance revenue with limited costs due to leveraging the existing platform.
Lower prices will facilitate distribution through hospitals along with normal maternity packages.

Company	Rating	Share Price (SGD)	Market Cap (USD m)	P/E (Current)	P/E (Forecast)	EPS Growth (%)	P/BV	Gross Margin (%)	Op Margin (%)	Div Yield (%)
Bionet Corp (TWN)	N.R	45.8	75.9	35.6	N.A.	N.A.	182.6	1.9	5.7	68.3
China Cord Blood Corp (US)	N.R	3.96	289.1	16.5	16.0	13.7	10.0	79.7	39.8	N.A.
Cryosite Ltd (AUS)	N.R	0.5	21.1	18.7	N.A.	N.A.	153.2	3.7	21.3	N.A.
Stemlife (Msia)	N.R	9.75	269.2	25.2	16.1	25.5	318.8	7.1	10.4	1.1
Medipost (KOR)	N.R	62,500	419.9	204.2	82.5	59.7	150.8	3.8	1.9	N.A.
Cordlife Group Ltd	BUY	1.19	250.9	41.1	32.7	26.3	2.7	14.1	65.5	19.9

Company	Rating	Share Price (SGD)	Market Cap (USD m)	P/E (Current)	P/E (Forecast)	EPS Growth (%)	P/BV	Gross Margin (%)	Op Margin (%)	Div Yield (%)
IIHH	SELL	3.7	9,041.8	50.1	46.3	36.3	1.7	3.4	N.A.	11.7
Raffles Medical Group Ltd	BUY	3.08	1,346.5	27.1	25.5	23.5	4.0	15.6	19.9	1.5
Healthway Medical Corp Ltd	N.R	0.067	123.0	4.0	N.A.	N.A.	2.6	8.4	29.1	N.A.
Q & M Dental Group Singapore	BUY	0.35	167.1	42.4	37.7	29.4	4.8	15.7	17.8	11.0
Cordlife Group Ltd	BUY	1.19	250.9	41.1	32.7	26.3	2.7	14.1	65.5	19.9

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue Growth (%)	17.9	14.6	61.2	17.6	25.1
EBITDA Growth (%)	-12.3	31.0	11.3	16.9	23.5
EBIT Growth (%)	-14.2	32.6	11.1	17.6	25.2
Pretax Profit Growth (%)	-21.7	87.1	25.8	-23.9	24.8
Core Net Profit Growth (%)	-20.5	-0.1	44.6	24.5	24.8

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
EBITDA Margin (%)	27.4	31.3	21.6	21.5	21.2
EBIT Margin (%)	25.2	29.1	20.1	20.1	20.1
Pretax Profit Margin (%)	25.7	42.0	32.7	21.2	21.1
ROAE (%)	12.1	9.1	9.9	9.8	11.6
ROAA (%)	9.3	6.4	6.8	7.2	8.3

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Days Receivable Outstanding	97.1	116.5	87.1	81.1	73.6
Days Inventory Outstanding	13.3	16.4	9.5	9.5	8.9
Days Payables Outstanding	103.8	197.5	143.9	121.9	96.7
Current Ratio (x)	3.5	1.5	4.0	4.3	4.6

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Asset/Liability (x)	4.6	2.8	3.7	3.6	3.5
Debt/EBITDA (x)	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3
Capex/Revenue (%)	7.8	5.0	6.4	0.8	0.6

WONG Chew Hann, CA – Regional Head of Institutional Research
- Phone: (603) 2297 8686
- Email: wchewh@maybank-ib.com
ONG Seng Yeow – Regional Head of Retail Research
- Phone: (65) 6432 1453
- Email: ongsengyeow@maybank-ke.com.sg
Alexander GARTHHOFF – Institutional Product Manager
- Phone: (852) 2268 0638
- Email: alexgarthoff@kimeng.com.hk

Suhaimi LIJAS – Chief Economist (Singapore | Malaysia)
- Phone: (603) 2297 8682
- Email: suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
Luz LORENZO – Philippines
- Phone: (63) 28498836
- Email: luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com
Tim LEELAHAPHAN – Thailand
- Phone: (662) 658 1420
- Email: tim.l@maybank-ke.co.th
Juniman – Chief Economist, BII (Indonesia)
- Phone: (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682
- Email: Juniman@bankbii.com
Josua PARDEDE – Economist / Industry Analyst, BII (Indonesia)
- Phone: (62) 21 29228888 ext 29695
- Email: JPardede@bankbii.com

WONG Chew Hann, CA – Head of Research
- Phone: (603) 2297 8686
- Email: wchewh@maybank-ib.com
Desmond CH'NG, ACA – Strategy – Construction & Infrastructure
- Phone: (603) 2297 8680
- Email: desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com

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