20140507-Maybank_KERPL-Higher_prices_to_drive_growth_11页_748kb

报告摘要

Earnings Growth: 1Q14F net profit is expected at THB630m, up 2% QoQ and 5% YoY, driven by rising prices and cost control.
Revenue Growth: Hospital revenue is expected to rise 5% YoY, despite a 8% YoY drop in patient traffic.
EBITDA Margin: EBITDA margin is expected to remain stable at 28%, even with a drop in volume.
Price Adjustments: BH raised prices by 5% at the start of 2014, contributing to revenue growth.
Political Impact: Political instability in Bangkok and the emergency decree caused a drop in patient traffic, but BH is expected to recover in 2Q14 onwards.
Valuation: Based on DCF with 8.5% WACC and 3% terminal growth, the fair value is THB115, implying 6.7x PBV and 24.9x PER for FY15F.
ROE: BH has a high ROE of 28%, the highest in the region.
Dividend Yield: Net dividend yield is expected to rise to 3.1% in FY16E.

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue (THB m)	12,982.5	14,346.0	16,268.4	19,468.2	23,054.8
EBITDA (THB m)	3,256.1	3,961.9	4,417.1	5,356.2	6,348.6
Core Net Profit (THB m)	1,699.9	2,466.4	2,711.5	3,359.1	4,084.6
Core FDEPS (THB)	1.84	2.67	2.94	3.64	4.43
Core FDEPS Growth (%)	10.2	45.1	9.9	23.9	21.6
Net DPS (THB)	1.80	1.90	2.05	2.53	3.08
Core FD P/E (x)	54.1	37.3	33.9	27.4	22.5
P/BV (x)	8.5	7.6	6.8	5.8	4.9
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.8	1.9	2.1	2.5	3.1
ROAE (%)	22.3	27.2	26.7	28.9	29.9
ROAA (%)	11.5	14.8	15.1	17.2	18.8
EV/EBITDA (x)	16.2	15.9	16.1	13.0	10.9
Net Debt/Equity (%)	Net Cash	Net Cash	Net Cash	Net Cash	Net Cash

1Q14F Net Profit: THB630m (+2% QoQ, +5% YoY)
1Q14F Revenue: THB3,647m (+5% YoY)
1Q14F EBITDA: THB1,035m (+6% YoY)
1Q14F Revenue per Visit: THB7,839 (+6% YoY)
1Q14F Revenue per Admission: THB256,724 (+10% YoY)
1Q14F Average Visits per Day: 2,823 (-5% QoQ, -8% YoY)
1Q14F Average Admissions per Day: 84 (+1% QoQ, -3% YoY)
1Q14F Average Daily Census: 370 (+1% QoQ, -3% YoY)
1Q14F Gross Profit Margin: 38% (-1% QoQ, -2% YoY)
1Q14F Operating Profit Margin: 21% (+3% QoQ, -1% YoY)
1Q14F EBITDA Margin: 28% (flat YoY, slightly improved from previous quarter)
1Q14F Net Profit Margin: 17% (flat YoY)

Price Increases: BH raised prices by 5%, leading to higher revenue per visit and admission.
Cost Control: SG&A to sales dropped to 16.6% from 17.1% in 1Q13, helping maintain EBITDA margin.
Volume Recovery: Expected to recover in 2Q14, with international patient traffic likely to return in 3Q14.
Occupancy Rate: Upgraded to 73% for 2015F and 74% for 2016F, supporting earnings growth.
Political Stability: Expected to positively impact patient traffic and hospital performance as instability eases.

Metric	Bumrungrad Hospital	Average Thai Hospital	Average Global peers	Average Regional peers
P/E (2014F)	28.2	29.1	29.7	31.7
P/E (2015F)	24.9	24.9	25.0	26.8
P/BV (2014F)	7.0	5.2	5.4	3.4
P/BV (2015F)	6.7	4.8	5.2	3.2
EV/EBITDA (2014F)	16.5	17.3	16.3	14.6
EV/EBITDA (2015F)	14.3	15.1	14.4	14.6
Dividend Yield (2014F)	1.9	2.0	4.4	1.4
Dividend Yield (2015F)	2.3	2.3	4.6	1.6
ROE (2014F)	26.8	19.1	14.0	12.0
ROE (2015F)	27.6	20.3	15.7	12.6

Valuation: Trading at 28.2x PER (0.9 sd above 5-year mean), lower than global and regional peers by 5% and 11%, respectively.
EV/EBITDA: 16.5x, a 5% discount to Thai and regional peers.
Key Risk: Political instability remains a key risk to earnings estimates.
Price Correction: Expected in 2Q14 due to entering the low season, rising valuation, and political concerns.

Price Adjustment: Increased from 8% to 10% annually.
Occupancy Rate: Upgraded from 70% to 73% for 2015F and from 72% to 74% for 2016F.
Earnings Upgrade: 2015-2016 earnings upgraded by 4-8% based on higher prices and occupancy rate.

Recommendation: Maintain BUY rating with a target price of THB115.
Outlook: BH is well-positioned for recovery in the second half of 2014, with strong price adjustments and cost control measures.
Competitive Edge: BH is preferred over BGH due to higher earnings growth, faster volume recovery, and cheaper valuation.

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