世界银行-世界银行在低收入国家债务可持续性框架中的作用和使用：独立评估小组（英）-2023.5-221页_14mb

Analysis Summary: The World Bank’s Role in and Use of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework

This evaluation examines the World Bank's involvement in and application of the Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC-DSF), reviewing both its implementation and effectiveness in addressing debt challenges in low-income countries.

Key Overview

The LIC-DSF, jointly developed by the World Bank and IMF, assesses debt sustainability through classification, projections, and stress tests. The 2017 reforms introduced tools like realism tests and tailored stress tests to improve risk assessment, which have been implemented as planned. However, there are opportunities to enhance the framework's practical application.

World Bank’s Role and Practices

• Projections: The Bank leads long-term growth projections under the framework, but optimism in medium-term growth forecasts has decreased slightly, while primary balance forecasts remain overly optimistic. The use of climate change scenarios and long-term investment-nexus analyses is still limited.
• Data: The Bank has improved data coverage and transparency through initiatives like the Debtor Reporting System (DRS) and Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA). However, DSAs often lack comprehensive assessments of data quality and concrete plans to address gaps, particularly for state-owned enterprise debt.
• Collaboration: Close collaboration with IMF staff exists, with most disputes resolved at technical or managerial levels. However, internal processes have sometimes delayed clearance and strained relationships.
• Operational Use: DSAs inform country-level decisions, including debt data transparency, grant allocations, and operational priorities. For example, countries at higher debt risk receive more concessional terms, and operations incorporate debt vulnerabilities into reforms.

Challenges and Limitations

• Data and Projections: Inconsistent application of realism tools, lack of focus on long-term projection accuracy, and limited concrete plans for data improvement in DSAs.
• Climate Change: While attention has increased, climate change is not systematically integrated into long-term scenarios, and its impact on growth is underemphasized.
• Collaboration and Process: Delays caused by new internal clearance processes have stressed relationships with the IMF, despite improvements in internal contestability.

Recommendations for Enhancement

1. Clarify Long-Term Projections: Systematically integrate judgment and realism tools, extending horizons to assess both medium and long-term risks, particularly related to climate change.
2. Sustain Data Quality Efforts: Require more detailed assessments of data shortcomings in DSAs and fortify the World Bank’s leadership in debt data reporting.
3. Link DSAs to Operations: Use DSA findings more directly in country partnerships, operations, and performance and policy actions to address debt vulnerabilities effectively.
4. Strengthen Climate Integration: Incorporate more forward-looking climate change analyses into long-term scenarios for all relevant countries.

The upcoming joint World Bank–IMF review provides a chance to further refine the LIC-DSF, particularly by addressing procedural inefficiencies and ensuring better adaptation to a changing global risk landscape.