战略与国际研究中心-PONARS-Policy-Memo-118_5页_79kb

Russia's Population Crisis: The Migration Dimension

Core Content

This document, authored by Theodore Gerber and published in May 2000 as a PONARS Policy Memo, analyzes the demographic and migration challenges Russia faced during the post-Soviet transition period. It highlights how economic and social difficulties have led to a population crisis characterized by declining fertility, increasing mortality, and negative natural population growth. The author also explores the emerging migration patterns and their implications for Russia's economic and social development.

Main Points

Demographic Trends

• Falling fertility: The crude birth rate dropped from 12.1 per 1000 population in 1991 to 8.6 in 1997.
• Rising mortality: The death rate increased from 11.4 in 1991 to 15.7 in 1994, then gradually declined. Male mortality rose sharply, from 11.6 to 17.8 per thousand.
• Negative natural increase: The combination of low birth and high death rates led to a natural population decline. From 1992 to 1998, Russia's population fell by approximately 1.4 million.

Migration Patterns

Three key migration trends have emerged since the Soviet collapse:

1. In-migration to the Russian Federation:

   • Russia has been a net recipient of migrants, especially ethnic Russians returning from CIS countries.
   • This migration is driven by economic and political factors, but the Federal Migration Service (FMS) is under-resourced and inconsistent in its management.

2. Out-migration from northern and eastern regions:

   • These regions, historically receiving labor from the European core, now experience net out-migration due to poor economic conditions and lack of incentives.
   • The migration is primarily composed of working-age, better-educated Russians, which leaves behind a population with more pensioners, low-skilled individuals, and indigenous communities.

3. Regional migration variation:

   • Labor market conditions significantly influence net regional migration rates.
   • Higher unemployment and lower wages negatively impact migration, while better economic conditions attract migrants.
   • Regional characteristics such as crime rates, housing availability, and urbanization also affect migration trends.

Key Information

• Migration as a response to economic conditions: Russians tend to migrate from lower-wage, higher-unemployment areas to higher-wage, lower-unemployment areas.
• Consequences of migration:
  • In-migration to border regions exacerbates unemployment and housing shortages.
  • Out-migration from resource-rich northern and eastern regions threatens Russia's ability to exploit its natural resources.
• Policy implications:
  • The Russian government has limited capacity to manage migration due to resource constraints and lack of political consensus.
  • Improvements in the FMS, more effective resettlement programs, and targeted development plans for resource regions are recommended.
  • Migration patterns reflect the broader economic and social challenges of the post-Soviet transition rather than contributing to them.

Regional Migration Rates (1991–1997)

Conclusion

Migration patterns in post-Soviet Russia are a critical component of the population crisis, reflecting and exacerbating the country's economic and social challenges. While in-migration offers some offset to population decline, it also brings localized problems. Out-migration from resource-rich areas threatens long-term economic development, and regional migration variations highlight the uneven impact of the transition on different parts of the country. Addressing these migration issues requires a coordinated and well-funded approach, which remains a challenge for the Russian government.