20220420-招银国际-JIAYUA__Late_payment_of_CP_3页_420kb

报告摘要

CMBI Credit Commentary - JIAYUA Summary

Core Content

This document provides a credit commentary on Jiayuan (JIAYUA), focusing on its recent late payment of commercial paper (CP) and the broader financial and operational context of the company. The analysis is conducted by CMBI Fixed Income, highlighting the company's financial position, recent developments, and outlook for the future.

Key Events and Developments

Late Payment of CP: Jiayuan faced a winding-up petition due to the default of HKD10mn in commercial paper maturing on 5 Feb'22. The company attributes this to the pending fulfillment of conditions precedent for a Zhuhai project acquisition, specifically a plot ratio change.
Repayment Progress: Jiayuan has repaid bonds with a remaining outstanding of USD225mn due on 11 Mar'22 and onshore ABS of RMB200.2mn on 31 Mar'22. It currently has USD103mn in bonds due on 2 May'22.
Refinancing Pressure: The only other bond maturity in FY22 is USD200mn due on 30 Oct'22. The company believes it can meet full repayment with internal resources and is exploring options for rollover.
Valuation Perspective: The current valuations of longer-dated JIAYUAs are considered to have priced in excessive downside risk, suggesting potential for recovery.

Financial Position

Audited by PWC: Jiayuan's FY21 results are described as "clean" with no material uncertainty regarding going concern, unlike many of its peers.
Revenue and Profit Decline: FY21 revenue and core net profit declined by 1% and 9% to RMB18.9bn and RMB2.7bn, respectively.
Liquidity and Leverage Metrics (Dec'21):
- Net gearing: 50.2%
- Adjusted liabilities/assets ratio: 60.6%
- Unrestricted cash/short-term debt ratio: 1.4x
Improvement from Dec'20:
- Net gearing: improved from 53.9%
- Adjusted liabilities/assets ratio: improved from 64.3%
- Unrestricted cash/short-term debt ratio: improved from 1.3%

Company Profile

Growth Strategy: Jiayuan's expansion is primarily driven by equity-funded asset injections from its major shareholder.
Sales Attributable Ratio: Maintained a high ratio of 81% in FY21.
Balance Sheet Transparency: Demonstrates a higher level of balance sheet transparency compared to industry peers.

Investment Outlook

Buy Recommendation: The firm maintains a "BUY" rating on JIAYUA.
Distressed Exchange Risk: The current valuations, especially for longer-dated JIAYUAs, are viewed as overcautious, reflecting an excessive risk of a "distressed exchange".
Liquidity Management: While Jiayuan may consider liability management strategies to conserve liquidity, the firm believes refinancing pressure is manageable.

Disclaimer and Legal Information

Author Certification: The author certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions and that there is no direct or indirect compensation tied to these views.
Trading Restrictions: The author has not traded in the stocks covered in the report within 30 days prior to the report's issue and will not do so within 3 business days after.
Investment Risks: The report highlights the inherent risks in trading securities and cautions that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Distribution Restrictions:
- UK: Only for persons falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or Article 49(2) (a) to (d) of the Order.
- US: Intended for "major US institutional investors" only, not for individual investors.
- Singapore: Distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and only to Accredited Investors, Expert Investors, or Institutional Investors.

Contact Information

Glenn Ko, CFA
Email: glennko@cmbi.com.hk
Tel: (852) 3657 6235
Polly Ng
Email: pollyng@cmbi.com.hk
Tel: (852) 3657 6234
James Wen
Email: jameswen@cmbi.com.hk
Tel: (852) 3757 6291
CMBI Fixed Income Department
Tel: 852 3761 8867/852 3657 6291
Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk
CMB International Securities Limited (CMBIS)
A wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited, which is a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank.