20231004-招银国际-比亚迪电子-00285.HK-Scenario_analysis_of_Jabil_biz_suggested_5-10__earnings_upside_in_FY24_25E__Reiterate_BUY_8页_1mb

BYDE Acquisition and Financial Analysis Summary

• Acquisition Overview: BYDE announced the acquisition of Jabil's Mobility business for RMB 15.8 billion (~US$2.2 billion), focusing on iPhone casing components. The deal involves financing through a loan of RMB 15.4 billion at a SOFR-based interest rate plus 68bps. Jabil's Mobility business generated US$4.45 billion revenue and US$237 million net profit in FY21, with high net margins (5.3% in FY21) compared to BYDE's lower historical margins. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to BYDE's profitability.

• Financial Impact Analysis: Scenario analysis shows potential 5-10% upside to BYDE's net profit in FY24E/FY25E under base case assumptions (15-18% iPhone casing share allocation and 3.4-3.8% net profit margin). Bull case scenarios could yield 10-22% upside. Integration of Jabil's business will enhance BYDE's share gain in Apple's supply chain.

• Business Outlook:

  • 2H23E: Positive for high-end Android recovery (e.g., Huawei) and iPad share gains, driving revenue growth.
  • FY24E: Strong potential from household energy storage and NEV (new energy vehicle) segments, supported by product expansion in smart cockpits and autonomous driving.
  • Long-term Drivers: Apple collaboration, new intelligent businesses, and global market opportunities.

• Valuation and Rating: Reiterate BUY with a target price of HK$41.98 (16.6% upside from current HK$36.00). Current P/E ratios (21.8x FY23E, 17.7x FY24E) are considered attractive; SOTP valuation uses weighted-average P/E multiples (15x for assembly, component businesses; 20x for high-growth segments). Downside is limited, upside focused on growth acceleration.

• Key Metrics: FY24E EPS forecasted at HK$1.90, revenue growth of 15.1% YoY. BYDE trades below historical P/E averages, supporting the BUY recommendation.

Analyst Certification and Disclosures

Analyst confirms no conflict of interest; report based on publicly available information. Past performance is not indicative of future results; investment involves risks.