世界银行-UPSNP生计干预对福利和劳动力市场的影响（英）-34页_1mb

Summary of Urban Productive Safety Net Program Livelihood Component Impact Evaluation

Program Overview

The Urban Productive Safety Net Program (UPSNP) in Ethiopia aims to improve livelihoods for urban poor households through public works, cash transfers, and livelihood support services. Implemented between 2016 and 2022 in Addis Ababa and other cities, the program includes a livelihoods component comprising grants and services for self-employment and wage employment pathways. This evaluation focuses on the impact of these grants and services on welfare and labor market outcomes using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach and post-intervention comparisons.

Methodology

Data from baseline surveys (2016) and livelihood follow-up surveys (2021-2022) were used, with randomization at the woreda level to create treatment and control groups. The analysis assesses short- and medium-term effects on household enterprise ownership, earnings, employment, consumption, and assets. Findings are moderated by the COVID-19 impact during the first implementation year.

Key Findings

• Self-Employment Choice: Beneficiaries strongly prefer self-employment (97%) over wage employment (3%), yet success rates are low. Only 44% of self-employment cases resulted in new or expanded businesses using the grant, and only 24% continued operations after 12 months.
• Grant Usage: Many beneficiaries (51%) used the grant for household expenses, particularly due to reduced economic opportunities and COVID-19. The grant's fungibility for household needs diminished its potential impact on intended livelihood activities.
• Enterprise Outcomes: The program increased household enterprise ownership (e.g., 35% in treatment vs. baseline levels), but enterprises had low profitability compared to control groups. Success was hindered by challenges such as high input costs, competition, and lack of business skills.
• Wage Employment Pathway: Minimal progress was made; only 8% of wage employment households found jobs, with low sustainment rates (67%).
• Welfare and Labor Market Impacts: No significant effects on total household income, consumption, assets, or employment hours were found. COVID-19 mitigation during year 1 exacerbated negative outcomes, while year 2 results were marginally better.
• Satisfaction: Beneficiaries were generally satisfied with the livelihoods grant and payment methods, but satisfaction was low for woreda officials.

Conclusion and Implications

The UPSNP's livelihood component shows promise in enterprise ownership but falls short on broader welfare impacts due to contextual factors like the pandemic and implementation challenges. Recommendations include strengthening business training, improving market linkages, and adjusting grant disbursement to enhance targeted investment. Future designs should prioritize training on financial management, input sourcing, and market access to boost sustainability and effectiveness.