深度报告-2025-11-28-J.P._Morgan-全球利率_大宗商品_外汇及新兴市场_50页_8mb

Global Markets Strategy Summary

US Rates

• Fed Policy: Expected to pause in December 2025, with cuts in January and April, targeting 3.25%-3.5% by mid-2026. Long-end yields difficult to decline further due to valuations and technicals.
• Curve Strategy: Maintain 50/50 weighted belly-cheapening butterflies for low-beta bearish trade; hold 5s/20s steepeners.

International Rates

• Germany: Do not expect yields to breach 2.75%. Expected to enter tactical long positions in Bunds.
• UK: Suggest steepening the yield curve ahead of the budget, continue holding 2s/10s gilts.

Currency Strategy

• Euro/USD: Maintain neutral stance; caution due to muted US growth expectations; target upside limited at 1.22.
• Front-End/N bell Steepeners: Reduce Europe/US rate differentials via EM curve steepeners, carry trades.

Commodities

• Oil: Demand to expand at 0.9 mbd in 2025, with prices near $58 (Brent) in 2026. Natural gas to average $3.73/MMBtu, TTF prices lower.

Emerging Markets

• Rates & FX: Reduce overweight (OW) EM rates stance; maintain medium weight (MC) for sovereigns and corporate bonds. Implement short positions in EM rates ahead of potential catalysts.

Global Economic Outlook

• Growth: US GDP projected at 1.8% in 2026, Eurozone facing anemic growth.
• Key Risks: Persistently low rates, commodity price pressures, trade tensions.