亚开行-2021年亚洲发展展望：为绿色和包容性复苏提供资金（英文）-2021.4-414页_21mb

Summary of Asian Development Outlook 2021

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 focuses on the theme of "Financing a Green and Inclusive Recovery" in the context of a multispeed economic recovery across developing Asia. The report outlines the economic trajectory, key risks, and the role of green and social finance in supporting sustainable and inclusive growth post-pandemic.

Main Views

• Economic Resilience and Recovery: Developing Asia is showing resilience despite the ongoing threat of recurring COVID-19 outbreaks. Growth is expected to rebound to 7.3% in 2021 and moderate to 5.3% in 2022, driven by global recovery, vaccine progress, and strong performance in China and India.

• Divergent Recovery Paths: Economic performance varies significantly across subregions. While East Asia and South Asia are expected to grow robustly, the Pacific and parts of Southeast Asia face slower recoveries due to heavy reliance on tourism and other sectors affected by the pandemic.

• Impact of the Pandemic: The pandemic caused severe economic contractions, especially in South Asia (India's 8.0% GDP fall), Southeast Asia (Philippines at 6.1%, Thailand at 6.1%), and Central Asia (due to falling commodity prices and remittances). The Pacific also experienced a recession due to collapsing tourism.

• Inflation Trends: Headline inflation is projected to remain moderate, falling from 2.8% in 2020 to 2.3% in 2021, and rising to 2.7% in 2022. The PRC and India are expected to see moderate inflation, while Central Asia and South Asia may experience higher inflation due to rising commodity prices and food costs.

• Current Account Surplus: The region’s current account surplus is expected to narrow from 2.4% of GDP in 2020 to 2.1% in 2021 and further to 1.7% in 2022, due to increased imports as economic activity recovers.

• Learning and Earning Losses: The pandemic caused significant learning and earning losses in developing Asia. On average, students lost 29% of a year's learning, with South Asia experiencing the most severe losses (over half a year). These losses are estimated to reduce future productivity and earnings, with an estimated $1.25 trillion in lost earnings for the region.

• Role of Green and Social Finance: A green and inclusive recovery requires massive capital mobilization. While public funding is limited due to pandemic-related fiscal shocks, private capital is increasingly involved. The report highlights the financial and social benefits of green and social finance and calls for better policy frameworks to support these initiatives, including common standards for disclosure and impact measurement.

• Subregional Outlooks:

  • East Asia: Projected to grow at 7.4% in 2021, with the PRC leading at 8.1%. Growth is expected to slow to 5.1% in 2022.
  • South Asia: Fastest growth in the region at 9.5% in 2021, but expected to moderate to 6.6% in 2022. India is the main driver, with growth of 11% in 2021 and 7% in 2022.
  • Southeast Asia: Forecast to grow at 4.4% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022. Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia show strong recovery signs, while Myanmar faces a sharp contraction of 9.8% in 2021.
  • Central Asia: Expected to grow at 3.4% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan leading due to rising commodity prices and increased production.

Key Information

• Vaccine Rollouts: Global vaccine distribution is in early stages, with developed economies receiving more doses than developing Asia. By March 31, 2021, developing Asia had administered 214 million doses, or 5.2 doses per 100 people.

• Fiscal and Monetary Policies: Governments and central banks have implemented expansive fiscal and monetary support to counter the pandemic's impact, with fiscal stimulus in 2020 being more significant than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

• Financial Conditions: Improved financial conditions in the second half of 2020 supported recovery in investment and consumer sentiment. Foreign portfolio investment stabilized, and equity markets rose above pre-pandemic levels.

• Tourism and Remittances: Tourism collapsed in many Pacific economies, while remittances remained relatively resilient, especially in Bangladesh and Pakistan, which saw over 15% increases. However, Central Asian economies experienced a decline in remittances, which are a significant part of their GDP.

• Challenges Ahead: Risks include resurgent outbreaks, delayed or ineffective vaccines, geopolitical tensions, and financial turbulence. Long-term scarring from the pandemic, such as learning losses, could persist and affect future productivity.

• Policy Recommendations: Governments are urged to nurture green and social finance through fiscal and regulatory measures, while also improving transparency and impact measurement to build investor confidence.

Conclusion

The ADO 2021 underscores the need for sustainable and inclusive recovery strategies, emphasizing the importance of green investments and social finance in building back better. While economic momentum is returning, the path to recovery is uneven, and policy support is critical to ensure equitable and environmentally responsible growth.