2021年初级商品依赖状况报告（英）-248页_4mb

Summary of "State of Commodity Dependence 2021"

Core Content

The State of Commodity Dependence 2021 report, published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), provides a comprehensive statistical overview of commodity dependence across all 195 UNCTAD member States between 2008-2009 and 2018-2019. The report highlights the extent of dependence on commodity exports and its implications for economic development.

Main Findings

1.1 Developments in Commodity Dependence

• World Commodity Exports: The nominal value of world commodity exports increased from $3.63 trillion in 2008-2009 to $4.38 trillion in 2018-2019, a rise of $750 billion or 19%.
• Commodity Groups:
  • Fuels: Remained the largest group, contributing 17% of world merchandise exports in 2008-2009 and 13% in 2018-2019.
  • Agricultural Products: Exports increased by 44% in nominal terms.
  • Mining Exports: Grew by over 50% in nominal terms, largely due to rising metal prices.
• Commodity Dependence Threshold: A country is considered commodity export dependent if more than 60% of its total merchandise exports are composed of commodities.
• Global Trends:
  • Number of Commodity Dependent Countries: Increased from 93 in 2008-2009 to 101 in 2018-2019.
  • Changes in Membership: Seven countries left the group, and 15 new countries joined between the two periods.
• Dependency by Commodity Type:
  • 38 countries relied on agricultural products.
  • 31 countries depended on fuel exports.
  • 32 countries were dependent on mining exports.

1.2 Commodity Dependence by Development Status

• Developed Countries:
  • Average commodity export share: ~23% in both periods.
  • Only 4-5 countries were classified as commodity dependent in each period.
  • Greece joined the group in 2018-2019 with a dependency rate of 61.3%.
• Transition Economies:
  • Commodity dependence was more pronounced, affecting 50% of countries in this group.
  • The number of commodity dependent countries remained relatively stable (8 in 2008-2009, 9 in 2018-2019).
  • The average and median commodity export shares increased slightly.
• Developing Countries:
  • Commodity dependence was the highest, with 87.1% of developing countries classified as commodity dependent in 2008-2009 and 86.1% in 2018-2019.
  • The average dependency rate increased from 64.1% to 66.3%, and the median rose from 70.3% to 74%.

1.3 Commodity Dependence by Geographical Distribution

• Africa:
  • 45 countries were commodity dependent in 2018-2019, representing 83.3% of the region.
  • Commodity exports accounted for more than 70% of total merchandise exports in most countries.
  • Southern Africa: Lowest level of commodity dependence (59.9% of merchandise exports), with Botswana and Namibia as major contributors.
  • Northern Africa: Three countries (Algeria, Libya, Sudan) had high levels of dependence, while Morocco and Tunisia had lower shares.
  • Eastern, Middle, and Western Africa: All had high commodity dependence, with Middle Africa showing the highest share (94.7%).
  • Outliers: Mauritius had a significantly lower level of commodity dependence (37.2%), ranking 132 out of 191 countries.
• Oceania:
  • 12 out of 14 countries were commodity dependent in 2018-2019, up from 11 in 2008-2009.
  • Average share of commodity exports in total merchandise exports: 73.0% (2018-2019), down from 79.7% (2008-2009).
  • Most countries relied on agricultural product exports, while Australia, Nauru, and Papua New Guinea were dependent on mining exports.
• Europe:
  • Only 4-5 countries were commodity dependent in each period.
  • Commodity exports contributed less than 24.7% of total merchandise exports.
• Asia:
  • The average share of commodity exports fell from 30% to 24.7%.
  • Commodity dependence remained stable in terms of number of countries, with 14-15 countries in the group.
• Americas:
  • Commodity exports accounted for 37.8% in 2008-2009 and 37% in 2018-2019.
  • The number of commodity dependent countries increased from 14 to 15.

Key Information

• The report includes over 30 indicators to assess commodity dependence, including export and import data, GDP growth, HDI, and value added by economic sector.
• It is the fifth edition of the series, published every two years.
• The analytical chapter provides insights into the causes and consequences of commodity dependence and discusses the role of technology and innovation in addressing it.
• Statistical profiles for all 195 UNCTAD member States are included in Chapter 2.
• The report is available through UNCTAD Publications, with contact details provided for further information.

Conclusion

The report underscores the persistent nature of commodity dependence, especially in developing and transition economies, and highlights the geographical and structural disparities in how countries are affected. It also emphasizes the importance of diversification and the role of technology in reducing vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations.