2017年-世界发展银行全球_Portraits_of_Labor_Marker_Exclusion_20___Country_Policy_Paper_for_Poland_87页_2mb

Summary of "Portraits of Labor Market Exclusion 2.0: Country Policy Paper for Poland"

Core Content

This document is a Country Policy Paper (CPP) for Poland, produced as part of a joint study by the European Commission (EC), the World Bank, and the OECD. It aims to better understand the labor market vulnerable in Poland, particularly those who are out of work or marginally employed, and to inform employment support and activation policies that address their specific needs.

The study employs an advanced statistical method called latent class analysis (LCA) to identify distinct sub-groups of individuals facing similar employment barriers and socioeconomic characteristics. This allows for a more nuanced understanding of the labor market challenges and helps design targeted interventions.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Polish Labor Market Context

• The Polish labor market has recovered from the financial crisis, with employment rates reaching 61.4% in 2015, close to the EU-28 average of 65.6%.
• The activity rate for the working-age population (15–64 years) increased from 63.4% in 2006 to 68.1% in 2015, but it is still below the EU-28 average of 72.5%.
• Unemployment rates rose to 10.3% in 2013 but have since declined to 7.5% in 2015, returning to pre-crisis levels.
• Youth unemployment remains a concern, with rates falling from 20.8% in 2013 to 20.8% in 2015, but still below the EU-28 average.
• Unemployment is higher among individuals with lower education levels, with a significant gap between those with tertiary education and those with lower secondary education or less.

2. Labor Market Exclusion and Vulnerability

• Low economic activity rates among women, youth, and older individuals indicate structural challenges in the labor market.
• Part-time employment is low in Poland compared to other EU countries, which may exclude many individuals from the formal labor market.
• Temporary contracts are widespread, contributing to labor market duality and precarity for workers, with 22% of employees being temporary in 2015.
• Unemployment is more pronounced in rural areas, where the rate is 11 percentage points higher than in urban areas.
• Long-term unemployment is lower than the EU-28 average (3% vs. 4.5%), but regional disparities exist, with some voivodships experiencing unemployment rates twice the national average.

3. In-Work Poverty

• In-work poverty in Poland is slightly above the EU-28 average, at 10.7% versus 9.6%.
• This is largely due to low wages, lack of secondary earners in large households, and low job quality, especially in agricultural sectors.

4. Demographic Challenges

• Aging population and low fertility rates (1.32 in 2015) are major concerns.
• The old-age dependency ratio increased from 20.9% in 2010 to 31% in 2015, and is expected to reach 52% in 2050.
• Emigration has increased over the years, while immigration has grown exponentially, but not enough to offset the demographic decline.

5. Methodology and Framework

• The study uses a framework of employment barriers, which includes barriers related to education, age, gender, and employment status.
• Latent class analysis is used to group individuals based on employment barriers and socioeconomic characteristics.
• The framework helps identify distinct sub-groups and provides a basis for policy-making that is tailored to specific needs.

6. Priority Groups

• The priority groups identified include:
  • Inactive mothers
  • Young unemployed individuals
  • Older workers
  • Individuals with low labor market attachment
• These groups face different barriers, such as lack of childcare, low skills, and age-related challenges.

7. Policies and Measures

• The study evaluates existing activation and employment support programs (ALMPs) in Poland.
• It provides an overview of the institutional and policy context, as well as program typologies, spending, and coverage.
• It highlights the need for policy improvements to better address the specific needs of these vulnerable groups.

Conclusion

The study concludes that targeted policies are essential to improve labor market inclusion in Poland. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the diversity of labor market exclusion profiles and designing interventions that are aligned with the specific needs of each group. The findings also highlight the structural challenges in the Polish labor market, such as low part-time work, high use of temporary contracts, and demographic shifts, which require comprehensive and adaptive policy responses.

The report serves as a reference for policymakers, providing evidence-based insights to guide future labor market reforms and social protection strategies. It is one of twelve country-specific papers in the joint project and is intended to support strategic policy choices in Poland.