2025-05-22-Jefferies-格拉西姆工业（GRASIM）_2025财年第四季度初步分析息税折旧摊销前利润未达预期_但新业务规模扩大且亏损减少_8页_199kb

Grasim Industries Equity Research Summary

Ticker: GRASIM IN
Current Price: INR 2,707.75
Recommendation: Buy
Price Target: INR 3,150 (+16%)

Business Overview

• Spin-off: Grasim operates as a standalone entity within the Aditya Birla Group.
• Core Business: Leading producer of Viscose Staple Fibre (VSF), largest Chlor-Alkali and Linen player in India, and expanding into Paints & B2B E-commerce.

Key Financial Highlights Q4FY25

• Revenue Growth (QoQ): 31.9%, reflecting overall business scaling.
• EBITDA: Rs 2,206 cr (YoY -58.1%), missing estimates, due to segmental challenges.
• B2B E-commerce Revenue: Annualized run-rate crossed Rs 50 bn, with a target of ~Rs 85 bn by FY27.

Segmental Performance

• VSF: EBITDA fell 39.5% YoY (Rs 2,434 cr), impacted by input cost pressures not offset by price hikes. Revenue volume stable (207 KT).
• Chemical: EBITDA jumped 34.1% YoY (Rs 3,015 cr), driven by improved realization for Caustic Soda and Chlorine Derivatives.
• Paints: Revenue improved to Rs 9-9.5 bn QoQ, emerging as India's 3rd largest decorative paint brand.
• Insulator: EBITDA improved (Rs 190 cr), driven by demand increases.

Margin and Leverage

• EBITDA Margins: Down significantly in VSF and Paints due to input costs, while Chemical margins improved.
• Net Debt: Declined to Rs 69 bn from Rs 83 bn QoQ.

Valuation & Target

• Buy Rating: SOTP valuation of INR 3,150 (35% Holdco discount on subsidiaries).
• Comparison: Current price below historical benchmarks, valuations reflect recovery expectations.

Risks

• Delay in global recovery depressing textiles/chemical demand.
• Paint business scaling challenges.
• Volatility in VSF and Chemical prices due to global supply increases.

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Rating: Buy