战略与国际研究中心-21st-Century-Conflict_-From--Revolution-in-Military-Affairs--RMA-to--Revolution-in-Civil_120页_5mb

Summary of "The Revolution in Civil-Military Affairs" by Anthony H. Cordesman

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the crisis in civil-military affairs, focusing on the role of failed governance, failed secularism, and the impact of terrorism in several key regions, including Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan. It highlights the correlation between political instability, economic conditions, and the rise of extremist groups, particularly Islamic extremist and Jihadist organizations, as a major driver of conflict and instability.

Main Points

Failed Governance and Failed Secularism

• The document emphasizes that the failure of governance and secularism has contributed significantly to the instability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
• These failures have created environments conducive to the rise of extremist movements and state terrorism.

Failed State Wars

• The case studies of Libya, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan are presented as examples of "failed state wars" where the state's inability to provide security and governance has led to the proliferation of non-state actors and terrorism.

Global Terrorism Trends

• The document notes a significant increase in the number of terrorist incidents globally, particularly in the MENA region, with a fifteen-fold increase since 2002 and a threefold increase since 2010.
• In 2013, the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia accounted for the majority of terrorist incidents, with Islamic extremist and Jihadist groups being the primary perpetrators.
• Five countries with large Muslim populations — Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Syria — accounted for four-fifths of the fatalities attributed to terrorism in 2013.

Key Terrorist Groups

• The five groups with the most attacks in 2014 were: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Taliban, Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, and Maoists/Communist Party of India-Maoist.
• These groups are responsible for the majority of terrorist activities, with ISIL and Boko Haram being particularly active in their respective regions.

Casualties and Targets

• Terrorist attacks in 2014 primarily targeted private citizens and property, followed by police, government, and military.
• The majority of terrorism-related deaths in 2013 were in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Syria, all driven by Jihadist extremist movements.
• Over 80% of terrorist fatalities were Muslims, with most attacks directed at Muslim populations.

Regional Strategic Partnerships

• The Middle East and North Africa region has complex alliances and rivalries, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE being key U.S. partners in the fight against terrorism.
• Iran's influence is felt through proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and support for the Assad regime in Syria.

Key Information

Economic and Demographic Pressures

• Libya:

  • A significant youth bulge (45.1% of the population is under 25), leading to high unemployment and social unrest.
  • Per capita income has declined from $24,700 in 2012 to $16,600 in 2013.
  • The country is ranked 166th in the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, indicating severe corruption.
  • The World Bank ranks Libya 188th in terms of ease of doing business, highlighting economic inefficiencies and poor governance.
  • Libya's GDP based on PPP has declined from $148.9 billion in 2012 to $102.98 billion in 2015.
  • The country has experienced a significant drop in GDP and a rise in inflation, with a current account balance turning negative.

• Iraq:

  • Ranked 55th in the UNDP Human Development Index in 2015, indicating a moderate level of human development.
  • The country has faced severe economic challenges, including a significant drop in GDP and a rise in inflation.
  • The Global Terrorism Database indicates that Iraq has experienced a high number of terrorist attacks and fatalities, particularly from ISIL and other extremist groups.

Trends and Data

• The document includes various charts and tables showing:
  • Trends in population growth and youth bulge in Libya from 1950 to 2050.
  • Correlation between GDP per capita and terrorism in the Gulf countries.
  • Trends in terrorist incidents and fatalities in Iraq from 1970 to 2013.
  • The impact of terrorism on the economy, including the decline in GDP and increase in inflation.
  • The distribution of population density in Libya.
  • The role of ethnic and sectarian divisions in the country's instability.
  • Energy vulnerability in Libya, with a focus on oil production and exports.

Global Corruption and Terrorism Index

• Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index shows Libya as one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
• The Institute for Economics and Peace's Terrorism Index highlights the severity of terrorism in Iraq, Syria, and other countries with large Muslim populations.

Conclusion

• The document concludes that the rise of terrorism is closely linked to the failure of governance and the lack of effective state control.
• It stresses the importance of addressing economic and social issues to prevent the proliferation of extremist groups and the associated risks to global security.