战略与国际研究中心-Saudi-Arabia-Enters-the-21st-Century_-The-Military-and-Internal-Security-Dimension-III-Saudi-Military-Expenditures_67页_661kb

Summary of Saudi Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of Saudi Arabia's military expenditures and arms transfers from the mid-1970s to the early 2000s. It is part of the CSIS "Saudi Arabia Enters the 21st Century Project," which examines the strategic, political, economic, and military trends shaping Saudi Arabia's future and its impact on the Gulf region and the United States' position.

Main Views

• Military Spending Trends: Saudi Arabia has consistently spent more on military forces than any other Gulf state. Since the mid-1990s, it has been the only major country in the region to maintain high defense expenditures.
• Comparative Expenditures: Charts show that Saudi military spending has been significantly higher than that of Iran and Iraq, especially after the Gulf War. It has also outpaced its Southern Gulf allies.
• Economic Burden: Military spending has placed a heavy burden on the Saudi budget, often consuming a large portion of GDP and government expenditures. The lack of transparency in budgeting and the inefficiencies in procurement and maintenance have contributed to this burden.
• Impact of Oil Revenues: Saudi military spending is closely tied to oil revenues. The "oil crash" of 1986 and the subsequent "oil boom" have had major impacts on the level and sustainability of military expenditures.
• Arms Imports: Saudi Arabia relies heavily on foreign suppliers for its military equipment. Despite efforts to develop an indigenous arms industry, it remains largely dependent on imports, particularly from the United States.
• Strategic Implications: The document highlights the need for Saudi Arabia to reevaluate its military spending, especially in light of economic pressures and the need for a more sustainable and balanced defense strategy.

Key Information

Military Expenditures

• High Spending Levels: Saudi Arabia's military expenditures have been significantly higher than those of other Gulf states. During the Gulf War, it reached a peak of 60-73% of central government expenditures (CGE).
• Post-Gulf War Adjustments: After the Gulf War, military spending as a percentage of CGE dropped to around 35-40%, which is still considered high for a country with substantial civil and welfare expenditures.
• GDP Impact: Military spending has averaged around 14-16% of GDP in recent years, though it was as high as 27-29% in the early 1990s.
• Transparency Issues: Saudi Arabia lacks detailed and transparent reporting of defense expenditures. The budget does not clearly separate defense and security spending, and there is a lack of effective planning and budgeting in the Ministry of Defense and Aviation (MODA).

Arms Imports

• Major Suppliers: The United States has been the primary supplier of arms to Saudi Arabia, followed by other Western and non-Western countries.
• Volume and Trends: The volume of arms imports increased significantly during the Gulf War, but the data suggests that these levels did not decline as expected after the mid-1990s.
• Offset Programs: Saudi Arabia has engaged in offset programs with foreign arms suppliers, which involve setting up local defense-related industries to reduce the need for imports. These programs have had limited success.
• Barter Deals: Saudi Arabia has used oil in barter deals to fund arms imports, which has further complicated the financial and economic implications of its military spending.

Economic and Demographic Impact

• Demographic Pressures: The rapid population growth has increased the demand for civil and social services, limiting the resources available for military spending.
• Economic Diversification: Saudi Arabia's lack of economic diversification makes it highly susceptible to fluctuations in oil prices, which directly affect its ability to fund military and civil expenditures.
• Per Capita Burden: Military spending per capita has remained relatively stable since the mid-1980s, but it has consumed a growing share of per capita income, especially after the 1986 oil crash.

Strategic Implications

• Need for Reform: The document emphasizes the need for Saudi Arabia to restructure its military spending to reflect a more mature force structure, focusing on quality rather than quantity.
• Modernization and Recapitalization: Modernization efforts must be carefully balanced with manpower and sustainment needs. The document suggests that Saudi Arabia should shift from a period of rapid expansion to a more stable and affordable structure.
• Impact on Stability: High military spending has contributed to chronic budget deficits and limited resources for civil development and social services. This has implications for the stability of the Gulf region and the broader Middle East.

Conclusion

The analysis concludes that Saudi Arabia's military spending, while historically high, is unsustainable in the long term. The Kingdom must find a way to reduce the burden on its economy and society by rethinking its defense strategy, improving transparency, and balancing military modernization with civil needs. The document also highlights the importance of strategic planning and the need for a more sustainable approach to arms imports and military development.