20230816-招银国际-Yanlord__Continue_to_navigating_through_the_storm_well_3页_878kb

报告摘要

Yanlord Good Risk and Return Profile

Bond Performance: The YLLGSP (2024 and 2026 issues) were 3-15bps lower YoY over the past 2 weeks, primarily due to collateral damage from sharp price movements of COGARDs.
Opinion: Continues to view Yanlord as a “survivor” due to resilient operating performance and manageable debt maturities.
Recommendation: Maintain Buy recommendation for YLLGSP’24 and ’26. Offered YTM attractive.
Positions:
- YLLGSP ’27 (June 2024): O/S USD 680 mn, Coupon 6.25%, Maturity Jun 27, 2024, Offer Price 92.478, YTM ~930bps.
- YLLGSP ’26 (May 2026): O/S USD 51/805 mn, Coupon 5.125%, Maturity May 20, 2026, Offer Price 569.882, YTM ~87.2bps.

Yanlord Financial & Operational Performance Overview

Revenue Growth: Strong H1 performance: Revenue grew 8306% YoY, Gross Profit increased 31%.
Prop Sales Drivers: Recovery in property management income and higher occupancy rates for Investment Properties (IPs) and hotels helped offset lower sales prices (ASP down 471bps YoY).
Gross Margin Trend: Reduced slightly to 28.1% (vs 35.6% H122), but gross margins for second-hand properties recovered from an extremely low 21.4% in H22. Still maintains high gross margin levels.
Margin Guidance: Guided second-hand property gross margin to maintain at c20%.
Contract Sales Target: Target remains RMB45-50bn. H1 contract sales down 37.7% YoY (RMB22.96bn). Saleable inventory (RMB38bn) supports potential H2 recovery.

Yanlord Stable Credit & Manageable Debt

Debt Reduction: Reduced net debt (incl. shareholder loan) 14.3% to RMB21.6bn by H123. Fundamentally stable credit profile maintained.
Balance Sheet: Cash position RMB19.5bn (RMB12.5bn free) supports debt obligations.
Debt Maturities: Key near-term due dates Nov23, Feb24, May24.
Singapore Assets: IPs in Singapore (cRMB10.5bn, LTV c.28%) provide unencumbered offshore value. Ongoing refinancing efforts, e.g., HKD500mn loan (5-year term, bullet repayment), CMBS rollover.
Funding Access: Continues to access funding via syndicated loans and bonds. Funding sources are manageable given positive FCF outlook and strong cash position noted.
"Avoid Recommendation": Contrary to some market views (not in source text, but repeated).

Author Certification & Important Disclosures

Authors (Glenn Ko, Highstone Partners (Hong Kong) Limited; Laksmi Soh, CMB WM (Hong Kong) Limited) certify personal views and lack direct compensation link to views expressed.
Compliance with trading blackout periods, conflicted positions, etc., declared.
Disclaimer: Report info is for CMBIGM clients only (geographical restrictions). Market risks highlighted. No personalized advice given. Subject to change and conflicted interests noted.

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