2014年-世界发展银行全球_Jobs_or_Privileges___Unleashing_the_Employment_Potential_of_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_140页_3mb

Summary of Report No. 88879-MNA: Jobs or Privileges

Core Content

This report, titled "Jobs or Privileges: Unleashing the Employment Potential of the Middle East and North Africa", examines the relationship between firm dynamics, productivity, and job creation in the MENA region. It highlights how existing policies and privileges have constrained private sector growth and job creation, and proposes policy reforms to address these challenges.

Main Findings

1. GDP Growth and Job Creation in MENA

• GDP growth in MENA over the last two decades has been driven by demographic change rather than labor productivity.
• Real GDP per capita growth was around 2% per year, lower than in Asia but comparable to other developing regions.
• Demographic change accounted for about 50% of GDP growth, significantly higher than in other regions.
• Productivity growth in MENA has been low, especially in non-agricultural sectors, limiting the ability to absorb the growing labor force.
• Most workers in MENA are employed in small-scale and low-productivity activities, contributing to high informality, unemployment, and inactivity rates.

2. Job Creation Fundamentals

• Young and productive firms are the main drivers of job creation in MENA, similar to other fast-growing regions.
• However, low firm turnover and slow productivity growth in MENA have limited the number of young and productive firms.
• Productivity growth is constrained by within-firm inefficiencies and misallocation of labor and capital across firms.

3. Impact of Policies on Job Creation

• Policies in MENA often limit competition and job creation by:
  • Creating an unlevel playing field through energy subsidies, exclusive licenses, and discriminatory regulations.
  • Increasing regulatory burden and uncertainty for non-privileged firms.
  • Insulating certain firms from foreign competition and international markets.
• These policies are often captured by politically connected firms, which receive preferential treatment in terms of inputs, access to credit, land, and industrial zones.
• Policy uncertainty is a major obstacle to growth, reflecting discriminatory practices and inconsistent implementation of rules across firms.

4. Industrial Policy in MENA

• Past industrial policies in MENA did not promote competition and were not performance-based.
• These policies often benefited a few firms, leading to policy capture and inefficient resource allocation.
• In contrast, East Asian countries succeeded due to:
  • A strategic vision and broad consensus on industrial development goals.
  • Performance-oriented policies with evaluation systems in place.
  • Equal access for all firms through measurable and verifiable performance.
  • Competition promotion and support for international market participation.
  • Investment in human capital and infrastructure, along with public sector reforms.

5. Evidence of Policy Capture

• The report provides direct evidence that policies in MENA are often captured by politically connected firms.
• In Egypt and Tunisia, these firms received energy subsidies and preferential access to resources.
• This capture has undermined competition, efficiency, and job creation.
• The report documents that connected firms in non-tradable sectors contribute to exchange rate overvaluation and lower productivity.

Key Policy Implications

The report outlines four broad policy areas that MENA countries should focus on to improve employment outcomes:

1. Promote Competition and Equal Opportunity

• Reform policies that limit free entry and exclude certain firms from government programs.
• Address non-tariff measures, trade barriers, legal barriers to FDI, and discretionary implementation of laws and regulations.
• Remove restrictive hiring and firing laws, cumbersome bankruptcy laws, and other barriers to firm entry and exit.

2. Ensure Equal Enforcement of Laws and Regulations

• Reduce policy implementation complexity.
• Ensure that laws and regulations are applied consistently across all firms.
• Strengthen public administration with merit-based recruitment and promotions.

3. Design Industrial Policies with Competition in Mind

• Avoid past mistakes of favoring a few firms.
• Ensure new industrial policies are performance-based and minimize the scope for capture.
• Promote competition in the domestic market and incentives for international competitiveness.

4. Create Transparent and Participatory Policy Processes

• Establish institutions that safeguard competition and equal opportunity.
• These include:
  • An effective competition law.
  • An independent competition authority.
  • Appropriate procurement laws and their implementation.
  • An independent judiciary.
• Ensure policy making is transparent, and citizens can participate in the process.
• Provide access to information on laws and regulations.
• Allow citizens to provide input into policy design and evaluation.
• Make politicians' stakes in firms clear.
• Ensure subsidies, tenders, and public land transactions are transparent and open.

Conclusion

This report underscores the importance of demand-side factors in explaining the weak job creation record in MENA. It argues that reforms are necessary to promote competition, equal opportunity, and efficient resource allocation. The proposed decision-making guide aims to help governments design and implement policies that respond to real obstacles while minimizing the risk of capture.

Key Information

• Report prepared by: Marc Schiffbauer (Task Team Leader), Abdoulaye Sy, Sahar Hussain, Hania Sahnoun, Philip Keefer, Ishac Diwan, Dalia Al Kadi, Doerte Doemeland, and Bob Rijkers.
• Published by: World Bank Group, June 2014.
• Region covered: Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
• Data sources: Firm census data, Enterprise Surveys, and new data on state-business relations post-Arab Spring.
• Key data sets:
  • ELMPS (Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey)
  • ERF (Economic Research Forum)
  • WDI (World Development Indicators)
  • WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution)
• Focus areas:
  • Firm dynamics and productivity growth
  • Policy capture and privileges to politically connected firms
  • Industrial policy and comparative success with East Asia

References and Appendices

• The report includes appendices with detailed data on:
  • Firm censuses and surveys
  • Employment growth over firm life cycle
  • Regression analysis on FDI inflow in Jordan
  • Data and methodology for Morocco
  • Evidence on political connections in Egypt and Tunisia
• It also references past World Bank reports, such as "Jobs for Shared Prosperity" (2013a) and "From Privilege to Competition" (2009), which provided the foundation for this analysis.

Final Notes

• The decision-making flow chart is included to guide policymakers in the design and implementation of reforms.
• The report emphasizes the need for transparency, accountability, and performance-based policies to unlock private sector potential and create more jobs in MENA.